If you have outdoor plans today, the trend has been your friend.

Models have trended drier and drier over the past couple days. It appears likely that most of our plans during the day today will get away with being dry. Still can’t totally rule out a stray shower or storm, especially as we get into this evening, so keeping the rain gear handy is a good idea.

The HRRR model gives a guess:

Sticking with the drier trend, those running very long distances in Nashville tomorrow should also stay dry. It wouldn’t totally shock me if there were a few leftover showers, but this looks more unlikely at this point.

As the race starts, temps will be in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low 60s – muggy. As you cross the finish line, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Props to you.

The rest of Saturday and into Sunday, the weather will largely cooperate. Other than a low chance of a stray storm Saturday afternoon, we’ll stay dry with highs in the low to mid 80s.

We continue to watch Monday as new information comes in.

Details are slowly starting to become clearer, but we are still 4 days out and things will continue to change between now and then.

Models continue to trend slower with the progression of the system. This means 1) for now, the highest probabilities for severe weather are off to our northwest and 2) the timing for any storms looks to be closer to the evening/nighttime hours.

With the continued slowing trend, the Storm Prediction Center has now shifted 15% severe weather probabilities just off to our west. But again, we are still 4 days out and this doesn’t mean a whole lot. The system could easily trend faster, and this isn’t a reason to let our guard down.

We are getting close to being in range of some of the higher-res models, which will help further increase confidence. Continue to stay connected over the next several days, as the forecast can (and probably will) change.

Storms will also be possible on Tuesday thanks to the slower progression of the system, although this will rely heavily on what unfolds on Monday.

The good news is that this will bring much-needed, beneficial rainfall. 2-3″ of rain will be possible over the next 7 days and we need every drop of it.

Temperatures remain mild.