Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon and Evening
Timing of Severe Weather: 2 PM Through 10 PM
This ETA is broad/wide because of significant uncertainty. The models do not agree. Most, however, have 2 rounds of storms.
Round 1: Mid-to-late afternoon, as storms cluster and move into Middle TN from north MS. Do not look for a specific timing, like 3:30 PM vs 5:30 PM, because the risk of misleading you with a specific time is too high.
Round 2: Around bedtime, as a squall line forms and moves through.
Here is what the latest HRRR loop is thinking through midnight tonight. Do NOT plan your day around the “breaks” in the storms based on this one model run. Use for guidance, not Gospel:
Around the mid-afternoon hours, we could start to see isolated severe weather in our area.
By the late afternoon to early evening, a strong lines of showers and thunderstorms is expected to pass through.
This is just what one model thinks. Timing is very generalized. We could see severe weather anytime during the afternoon and evening hours.
Another model, the NAM3, trends toward a later arrival of the bad stuff, beginning around 7 PM and lasting until midnight.
Those will outdoor plans tonight should closely watch the weather.
Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out
We are currently included in the “Enhanced Risk” category *think 3 on a 0-5 scale* by the Storm Prediction Center for today.
This has us in the “getting concerned” category on David’s unofficial SPC scale.
Here is a detailed breakdown of why we are in the enhanced risk area for day.
30% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of a given point:
15% probability of large hail within 25 miles of a given point:
*Update: At 11:30 AM, SPC upgraded our tornado outlook from a 2% to a 5%*
5% probability of an isolated tornado occurring within 25 miles of a given point:
With all of this in mind, damaging winds are the main concern. However, large hail, localized flooding and even an isolated tornado can not be ruled out at this point.
David isn’t freaking out about the tornado concern, but he thinks we definitely should not ignore it. Forecast soundings from the SREF, NAM3, and HRRR models all suggest at least some tornado potential.
- This is a growing severe weather threat that most definitely has our attention and should have yours.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening.
- Main concerns are damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado or localized flooding can not be ruled out.
Consult multiple weather outlets and be on alert through the day today. This is an evolving forecast that will change by this afternoon. Stay with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest information.
Showers Clearing Tuesday Morning, Clouds Remain Through Wednesday
While we could see a few lingering showers in the early AM on Tuesday, the majority of the showers should be pushed to our east and out of our area. Expecting for gradual clearing to occur tomorrow, but the majority of the clouds will remain over our area.
By Wednesday, some more clearing will occur; we may even get some partly sunny skies. Highs will be in the low 70s on Tuesday and in the mid 70s by Wednesday.
If you need to do something outside this week, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be your best bets.
More Showers and Possibly Severe Weather on Thursday
By Thursday, our calm weather pattern becomes interesting once again.
We are monitoring another potential round of severe weather. Both Thursday and Friday appear to be wet.
GFS Loop From 7 AM Thursday Through 1 AM Saturday
Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% Outlook for Severe Weather for our area.
This means that there is a 15% probability of damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado occurring within 25 miles of a given location.
Right now there isn’t much of a clear timing. Here is what the SPC had to say about the topic:
“Storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from western LA into western KY, and will track northeastward into parts of KY/TN/MS/AL through the period.”
We will be keeping a close eye on this severe weather potential. Over the next few days, more of our short-term models will come into range, which will hopefully provide more insight into the timing, and the severity of these storms.
For now, the severe weather threat appears to be confined to Thursday, with showers hanging around through the day on Friday.
Weekend Looks Pleasant and Clear of Rain For Now
By this weekend, our busy weather pattern looks to relax a bit. Sunny skies should be in place on both Saturday and Sunday with highs topping off in the upper 60s.
5-Day Allergy Forecast From Pollen.com