Just like that, we have finally reached spring!
By Tonight … Showers Are on the Way
Well that slim chance of rain is beginning to become a definite chance of seeing showers this evening. Showers and some thunderstorms developed this afternoon to our northwest, and these showers have continued to race down I-24.
Prelim ETAs out to 2 hours on this line. As it gets closer, we'll include all of both counties. ^al pic.twitter.com/EROnATt3ye
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) March 20, 2017
This close in time, models are useless when talking timing. Given the current location of the showers along the Kentucky border, expect for showers to reach our area after 7 PM.
These showers and thunderstorms are packing quite the punch (lots of lightning), however, they will likely weaken by the time they reach us.
Nonetheless, our rain-free evening may be no more.
Slight Risk of Severe Weather For Tuesday
Tuesday morning, do not be surprised if you feel a raindrop or two. We could see some scattered showers in the morning, these showers should be non-severe.
As we move through the day, we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms by the afternoon.
Latest run of NAM3 shows these early morning showers, with the main line of showers moving through later in the day.
Timing: Afternoon to Evening
If we slow down the previous run above, you can see a line of showers developing to our northwest, then pushing through our area. This is the line of showers where we could see the strong to severe thunderstorms.
Latest model runs have been trending towards a late afternoon arrival for the main line of showers and storms. However, we could see some showers and thunderstorms linger into the evening.
Large Hail and Damaging Winds are the main concern
Updated as of 12:30 PM on Monday: This afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded the majority of both Davidson and Williamson Counties to a “Slight Risk” (think 2 on a 0-5 scale) for tomorrow.
(Note: The extreme northern parts of Davidson County were not upgraded, and are still in the Marginal Risk category)
Storm Prediction Center has introduced a 15% probability of a hail/damaging wind event for Tuesday. Storms expected late afternoon/evening. pic.twitter.com/1Jxsb3D59e
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) March 20, 2017
This translates to: a 15% probability of any type of severe weather developing within 25 miles of any given location. Those south of I-40 appear to have the higher probability of seeing severe weather.
As of right now, large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main concerns for tomorrow’s severe weather potential. Given the set-up of the event, hail appears to be the more likely of the two. A tornado can not be ruled out at this point, but appears very unlikely.
- If you have sporting events, or anything outdoors tomorrow afternoon/evening, it will likely be rained-out.
- Models are still shifting and inconstant on timing. Right now, it looks like an afternoon to early evening arrival.
- The main severe weather threats appear to be hail and damaging winds.
We will continue to keep an eye on these storms today and tomorrow. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the most up-to-date information.
Some Sunshine Wednesday Through Friday
By Wednesday morning, any leftover showers should move out of the area during the early morning hours. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all appear to be fantastic spring-like days with partly sunny skies and our high temps climbing higher each day.
Another Chance of Showers This Weekend?
Let’s start out by saying that if you need to do something outside this week, Thursday and Friday will probably be your best bet. By Saturday morning, we are expecting a complex system to move through much of the southeast.
GFS Loop From 1 PM Friday Through 1 PM Sunday
Notice showers could begin to move in as early as Friday evening. There is also discussion about the severity of these storms. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% Severe Weather Outlook to our southwest on Friday and to our south on Saturday. We are not included in this outlook right now.
Both the GFS and Euro at this point show us getting showers, so I would plan for Saturday to be possibly rained-out. However, there are inconsistencies between the two models when it comes to timing, and the severity of these storms.
With there being so much time between now and Saturday, just note that Saturday will likely be wet with some showers/thunderstorms possibly carrying over into Sunday. We will be keeping an eye on this system throughout the week.
5-Day Allergy Forecast From Pollen.com