Rain Tomorrow. Snow Looks Unlikely Late Monday Night.

Posted on Sunday, March 12, 2017 @ 5:40 pm by David

Mon 31°/49° • Tue 34°/43° • Wed 22°/40° • Thu 22°/48° • Fri 31°/56° • Sat 42°/59° • Sun 41°/64°

Cold Rain, Mid-Day Monday

According to the HRRR model, around 9 AM Monday, a rain/snow mix will be crossing the Mississippi River near the Missouri bootheel:

This timing matches well with the NAM3 model, which thinks the rain will be here around lunchtime, and last for a few hours:

The GFS and Euro models agree with this.

This afternoon rain should be a cold rain, not snow. Above-freezing dewpoints Monday afternoon will see to that (the temperature will never go below the dewpoint).

Forecasted rain totals increased from this morning. NWS-Nashville now calling for 0.26″, which is more than enough to rain out your “ball must roll” practice.

Snow Possible Monday Night?

If it happens, it’ll be after midnight, and it should be very little. Right now we do not expect accumulation or travel interruptions.

This is the classic scenario — the cold air rushes in as the precip rushes out. The only way to get snow is if the two overlap.

The latest run of the Euro model does not think the precip and cold air will overlap. It thinks the precip will have escaped east by the time the freezing air gets here. Any snow would happen on the Plateau (and it would be very little; maybe a dusting).

The GFS is model is very different. It thinks there will be an overlap — and therefore some flurries early Tuesday morning — even lasting into Tuesday afternoon. This model is the only reason we are even talking about it.

As usual, there is some forecast uncertainty.

Breaking the “tie” here is the NAM3, and it’s not impressed by snow chances. There’s just not enough moisture wrapping in from the north. This loop runs from Tuesday midnight to 1 PM:

After looking at the morning and now the afternoon data, this gif still works for me:

Don’t bet on anything getting cancelled.

Very Cold Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday

Clear, Cold, Canadian air will remind us it’s still technically Winter. The high Tuesday is only 43°, but the winds will be blowing 10 to 14 MPH from the north. The wind chill is going to make temps feel at or below freezing.