Most of Saturday Looks Good, Rain Most Likely Saturday Night, Rainout Alert Sunday

So when’s it going to rain this weekend?

Let’s start by saying it’s very probably going to rain this weekend. And very probably a lot.

Thru Sunday night, the Euro model predicts 0.5″ to 0.7″, which is more than enough to rain out most anything. The GFS model is running higher totals, between 1.0″ and 1.1″. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has even more, taking the totals closer to 2″.

But, then there is the NAM3 model, which is way underplaying this event. It has nothing in most of Williamson County, with about 0.1″ to 0.2″ around I-40, increasing up to 1″ in north Davidson County:

The above model run is the outlier. The weight of the evidence says rain. As I’m writing this, the updated data is arriving, and it’s very wet.

When in will rain, and how much it will rain, are the more difficult questions.

If you’re like me, and you’re coaching a youth baseball tournament, it sure would be nice to know if and when there will be a rainout to  know how to align pitching for tomorrow’s games. Hence this special Friday night write-up.

Saturday Morning

Maybe a passing shower overnight, but the models think Saturday morning will be dry.

The HRRR model thinks this rain/storm cluster in West Tennessee will break up and pass north, missing us.

Saturday Afternoon

The HRRR model runs into 1 PM Saturday, and it still has the rain pretty far west of us:

Rain should hold off for most of the afternoon. It’s the evening where the rain looks most likely

Saturday Night

The NAM3 model, which is the only hi-res model covering this time, forms rain west of us around 4 PM, and drives it in here by 7 PM:

The GFS and Euro models also agree on a heavy rain falling late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night then continuing into the wee hours of Sunday morning.

This should be heavy rain, some accompanied by thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center currently has us on the edge of a 5% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

The primary concerns from this would be damaging winds and large hail.

Rainy Sunday

Sunday morning, rain should come in waves. It won’t be a steady rain, but it should start overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. If the models are correct, most fields may not be able to recover in time to play ball Sunday.

Models differ about the amount of rain we will see Sunday. The new NAM3 model run looks pretty dry Sunday.

The Euro model thinks most of the rain this weekend will fall Sunday morning, with rain lingering and hanging on in the afternoon. The GFS agrees, although it’s a bit rainier Sunday afternoon.

Takeaway: NWS-Nashville forecasts 0.42″ by 7 PM Saturday, 0.79″ from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday, then 0.52″ from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday. If any of these three time segments verify, expect a rainout of Sunday’s games. My only hesitation is the “not that much rain” NAM3 model for Sunday — which might be right — but my bet is on the weight of the evidence that says Sunday’s fields will be too wet for baseball, and most activities will be a soggy, maybe even muddy, mess.  I’m betting on a rainout of Sunday’s games.

I’ll tweet more information about this in the morning.

Clearing, Cooler Work Week Ahead

Highs in the 70°s, with much lower humidity. Late May features the struggle between Summer and Spring. Next week, Spring wins.

5-Day Forecast