As I write this, a cold front is arriving, scattering a few isolated showers across both counties, moving from west to east. This hit-or-miss activity may linger for a few hours. The HRRR model continues to show it:
All models agree the rain will be gone tonight.
Cooler, Less Humid Week Ahead
Temps are forecast to be in the 70°s through Friday! Humidity will also behave, staying low, with no dewpoint forecast over 60° until Saturday.
Right now we think rain will hold off for what we all hope will be a party downtown Monday night.
Tuesday/Wednesday Rain Chance
The models are all over the place about rain chances Tuesday.
There may be enough energy from a passing system for scattered showers Tuesday morning and afternoon.
The real rain focus is on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The NWS forecast discussion this afternoon says:
The more significant rain potential will come Tuesday night into Wednesday as a deep trough [that’s low pressure, which makes it rain] digs into the Mississippi Valley [which is off to our west], then pushes eastward towards us. Weather models disagree about the strength, timing, and exact location of this system. But, the probability of rain should be high with a surface low and cold front expected to move across the area.
We still think the most likely time for rain is late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Specific ETAs are indeterminable right now. Remember, rain may arrive before Tuesday night.
The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday thinks we will see about 0.25″ of rain.
I bet this will change as more becomes known and models resolve their differences.
Memorial Day Weekend Guess
Temps Saturday creep over 80°, and humidity will rise as dewpoints poke above 60°. By Sunday, we should be really hot and very humid.
Medium-range models continue to predict a storm system to approach from the Plains Saturday night through Sunday. Here’s the GFS model running from Saturday 7 PM to Monday 7 AM.
Draw no specific conclusions from this, but prepare yourself for the possibility of a rainy (and maybe stormy) part to your Memorial Day Weekend.
Have a great Sunday, y’all.
Categories: Forecast Blogs