UPDATED Latest HRRR Loop
After a 1.0″-4.5″ overnight last night, more rain chances return tonight thanks to a shortwave traversing the Tennessee Valley. Light-moderate rain will be possible, but nothing like what we saw 12 hours ago.
A blanket of clouds continue to stretch over all of our area. Expect for these clouds to hang around throughout the entire day.
You may notice some more robust clouds currently in Arkansas; this is what will be moving our way later today bringing more showers and some thunderstorms.
This afternoon we tied the record high temp for November 5, 82 set in 1975.
Meanwhile, severe weather has been ongoing in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana this afternoon, fueled there by a cold front.
That cold front will approach tonight.
One week ago we faced a Frost Advisory. Today, this.
Today clouds and sun, high 81°, very humid (especially for November, dewpoint 65°!), and very windy this afternoon, south wind sustained ~ 16 MPH gusting to 28 MPH. Rain likely to start around midnight.
Temperatures this morning are quite warm for the beginning of November in Nashville. A renewed surge of even warmer air is expected to start today, thanks to southerly surface winds. It may feel like a distant memory after our couple of recent cold spells, but a muggy “Gulf of Mexico airmass” will move north, back into Tennessee, for the weekend and part of next week.
So far, nothing has developed this afternoon to sound off any rain alarms. That said, there is still a chance of showers developing through the afternoon into the early evening thanks to the abundance of moisture and a weak front moving towards us. Models aren’t showing anything along this front, but if we do end up seeing rain this afternoon/evening it would be because of this.
Rain during the daylight hours today is unlikely but more will encroach on the area late tonight/overnight. Latest observations at the airport have us near a balmy 69ºF at 11AM under mostly cloudy skies. The dew point is only ~9ºF lower at 60ºF, meaning moisture return from the south is definitely in play. You will feel the southerly breeze today, too, gusting as high as 20-25 mph, based on latest HRRR model data.
The rain, rain is not going away anytime soon. Our local NWS best described the rest of this week by stating there will be the potential for numerous periods of rainfall.
We will see our next batch of these scattered showers this afternoon into this evening.
Temperatures Today/Tomorrow
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As the sun sets tonight and costumed kiddos head out to trick-or-treat, temps will slide from the lower 50s into the upper 40s. Make sure to bundle up!
Mostly sunny skies have settled in for the day. We will actually warm up a bit more today than we have in recent days with highs expected to reach into the mid-60s. All in all, it’ll feel nice and comfortable today.
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