Substantial wind shear will be in place as a line of storms approaches Monday morning. ETA late morning/lunch. But instability should be near zero, reducing if not eliminating most/all severe storm concerns. Winds may still be strong (40 MPH or so) — and we cannot totally rule out a severe wind event — but there is no reason for a hail or tornado concern Monday.
Weather requires lots of math. Lots of math, and lots of pi. In honor of one of the best math-themed holidays, I present to you a pi-themed forecast.
A thin slice of rain showers is moving through Middle Tennessee as seen on radar this morning:
An east-west line of storms will continue to impact the area.
As expected, more rain north, less to the south. This activity will begin to taper off later this evening, with only spotty showers tonight. Washout potential is low but a good soaking is expected.
Rain will run off and on today and tonight, then turn steadier Saturday morning. HRRR below:
Rain should end around mid-afternoon Saturday.
This doesn’t look to be a complete washout, but we will get a decent soaking. About 1/3″ to 1/2″ possible, with more rain the further north you go.
#TBT
Those “warm and happy thoughts” will lead to high near 80 today.
Warmer temps will provide more energy for showers to develop Thursday afternoon. HRRR Model predicts most of the showers will stay to our north.
Our temperatures will continue to trend well above average by over 15º.
We can thank a surface high weather regime for these May-like temperatures. The surface high pressure will begin to move off to our northeast by tonight.
Nothing happening until Thursday, when rain sets up north of us.
Will it get here? Maybe not. Thursday showers will mainly stay north of I-40. They may not even make it into Davidson County.
But Friday and Friday night that stationary rainmaking boundary should sag south and send a few off and on, scattered, and unconcerning showers into to our area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible, but just thunder and lightning, nothing severe.
Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts…
High pressure remains in store for us through most of the work week and spring-like temperatures will continue for Nashville sitting at or above 70 degrees for most of the week!
There had been 5 straight days of rainfall. It would continue for another 6 days, setting the record in Nashville for the most consecutive days of rainfall.
This record was almost broken 23 years later. Beginning on March 7, 1978, Nashville saw 10 consecutive days of rainfall.
Register here for a discussion with the Nashville Severe Weather team tonight at 5:30pm hosted by the National Weather Service, Nashville as a part of severe weather awareness week.
CLICK HERE TO REGISTER
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