As of 1:00 pm, a cold front is moving east through west TN. The widespread clouds we’ve seen so far today are also moving east, leaving us with what could be a partly sunny afternoon.
In some scenarios, this would destabilize the air above our heads enough to create damage-making severe weather. However, today, the general mood of computer models and forecasters is somewhat chill.
NWS-Nashville writes a technical long form forecast discussion twice a day, every day, 365 days a year. In some years 366 days a year. One is published sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM, another 12 hours later. These long form discussions cover the next seven days. NWS-Nashville is the essential weather infrastructure in Middle Tennessee. Without them, the entire weather enterprise collapses. #Thanksgiving.
A cool, pleasant day ahead with high temperatures reaching low to mid 60’s and mostly sunny skies.
It’s a bit breezy today with a south wind at 10-15 mph gusting as high as 20 mph.
A warm front will lift across Middle Tennessee early Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system will move north of Middle Tennessee late Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front through our area by Wednesday night. This sets up a rain and potential strong/severe storm event.
Radar as of 10:22 AM:
You can check updated radar scans here.
The HRRR model predicts rain this afternoon. It looks like it’s predicting more rain than we see coming on radar:
The rain should end around dark. HRRR model is showing about 0.4″ or so (below), but expect less than that. NWS-Nashville expects about 0.25″.
Sun will prevail this morning before some clouds move in this afternoon. You can see them hanging out over West Tennessee in this morning’s satellite imagery:
Winds may pick up to 10-15 mph today.
High temperatures will approach 70º. This will be closer to the record (78º) than it will be to the average:
