If you’ve been outside today, you know fall is here. Temps this morning were in the low 40’s. Sweater season is now. Temps shouldn’t get higher than 70 today, so feel free to rock your sweaters all day long. No rain in sight, just sun.
Fall is Here
Do You Like Awesome Weather?
For many of you, this is what you’ve been waiting for. Lowes low enough to make you bundle up. NWS Nashville noted a 15° temp drop. Today, highs that let you wear that sweater. Cue the gif…
For the next several days, we’ll gradually warm, but barely over 75°. Lows in the evenings will round up to about 50°. Locally colder lows are possible.
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today/Tonight, Then We Cool Off & Dry Out
Today we’re looking at the possibility of dangerous storms. Here are the Storm Prediction Center outlooks we are a part of:
The HRRR model has been back and forth with whether storms will come through mid/late afternoon. The latest runs suggest mid/late afternoon storms are not likely, but we wanted to mention the possibility.
Low-Probability Severe Thunderstorms Friday
It’s going to rain and probably storm Friday. Storms carry a low-probability chance of turning bad.
The Storm Prediction Center and NWS-Nashville think the biggest threat is damaging straight line winds (58+ MPH). There’s a localized flooding risk especially in urban areas. One inch diameter hail and tornadoes are possible, but both are less likely. See outlook below. (Editor’s Note: you might notice SPC has the hail risk a bit higher than NWS-Nashville. That’s a distinction without a difference, when in doubt, I like the local forecast).
Sprinkles Today, Cold Front + Rain Friday
Showers for some of us are possible today. HRRR below has scattered showers from mid morning to early afternoon.
Our next rain-maker will be in the form of a strong Fall cold front. At the moment, the window for rain opens early Friday morning and closes pre-dawn Saturday morning. We believe the heaviest rain will fall Friday afternoon through the night. All of this should add up to between .25″-.50″. Check back on timing if you have outdoor plans Friday night.
Humidity Continues this Week; Iffy Rain Wednesday
Checks calendar, yes, it’s October despite temps leveling up to low 80’s today. Dewpoints hangout in the low 60’s. See the world’s most useful chart below for interpretation.
Rain shouldn’t be an issue today. HRRR has us dry. Outdoor plans look safe.
Warm + Humid This Week; Possible Sprinklers Tonight
Very warm few days ahead for October. Well above average highs in the mid 80s (on the order of ten or so degrees warmer than usual). Muggy dewps stick around for the week.
Hold on to your hats… expecting wind speeds between 10 and 20 mph throughout the day (gusts up to 30 mph possible!). A few clouds in the sky, but otherwise a sunny, warm day. Nothing to ruin any outdoor plans.
Above Average Temps Continue
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it still isn’t sweater weather yet. Temps today in the mid to high 80s, and dewpoints hanging on at the high 60s. A bit sticky but definitely could be worse. Temps today are falling right below the record high for today.
Above Average Temps and (Mostly) Dry
If I were to be giving this forecast of mid 80’s and no rain in the middle of July, we would all probably be pretty okay with it. Instead we are in October, and I think it is safe to say most of us are all tired of the mid 80’s and ready for PSL weather.
Mild-ish Day Today, Possible Afternoon Showers
Temps and humidity are sticking to the trend today – temps in the high 70s and dewpoints in the high 60s (so sticky, but not unbearable).
The NWS said that some afternoon pop ups are possible, but HRRR shows most of the fun weather happening to our east. In their words, “Don’t think it’ll be widespread, but we’ll probably see some pavement wetters prior to sunset this evening.”
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