After a few rainy days, we enjoyed a mainly rain-free day except for some mist this morning. The rainfall is stacking up.
Guess what… we’re warming back up. Expect no less when it’s Fall in TN. One of these days we won’t have to rely on rain to bring us more Fall-like temps.
HRRR has showers and storms already moving into our area with storms continuing into the afternoon/evening.
SPC has included us in their outlook for severe weather today with the following probabilities for seeing severe weather.
Showers and storms look pretty widespread today. They look to hang around through the overnight hours. HRRR not showing a lot of breaks from the rain today.
No gaps in rain = rainout potential. Outdoor plans don’t seem like they will fair well. Nothing severe is expected with these storms, but don’t rule out lightning and the occasional strong gust of wind.
Much quieter today after a wet weekend. There is a possibility of isolated showers in our area. Any rain should be light in nature, not rainout-quality. HRRR thinks most of the action will take place to our southeast.
Rain from this morning will continue off and on today through the afternoon. Off/On rain and storms should end around 7 PM. See HRRR below:
There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so some of these showers and storms may lead to heavy downpours. WPC thinks there is a low chance (5 – 10%) for flash flooding to occur in Davidson & Williamson counties.
Temperature highs will be in the low 80’s and lows will be in the high 60’s. Chances for scattered showers are possible today (HRRR shown below).
The model is showing that some showers pop up around 5 and are off and on through the evening. Rain today and tonight should not be heavy, but we can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Rain is expected in the early morning on Sunday. Rain continues off and on through lunchtime or maybe mid-afternoon (3-4 pm). The evening will be mostly overcast with still a chance for light occasional showers later into the night as things move out.
Some of the Sunday rain could be on the stronger side. The only concerns would be strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
A closed low will circle around our area… see the morning AFD for an explanation.
A shortwave will dive south out of Minnesota/Wisconsin toward Arkansas Sunday night and quickly become a closed low by Monday evening. The closed low will spend the rest of the work week meandering around the Southeast and eventually the Ohio River Valley. This will put us in a cloudy, cooler, and wetter pattern than what we have seen over the past week. The highest PoPs areawide after Sunday will be Tuesday afternoon as the upper low lifts back north and west
Those scattered showers from this morning might cause sprinkles for some of us until the early afternoon. For the rest of the day HRRR has the rain breaking up to avoid our counties.
This weekend is where we will see more of this rain. Saturday looks to have some scattered showers arriving around early afternoon. These won’t be too intense but will ease us into Sunday’s batch of rain starting Saturday night.
Wet trend begins today. HRRR has showers for some of us starting to pop in mid afternoon to evening time and will continue overnight. Make sure you follow us on twitter for updates on these showers coming through later today. These will not bring downpours or severe weather by any means.
Back to summer feels today. Highs up into the mid 80s. A real muggy day for it to be fall… dewps in the mid 60s and it’s not going away for a few days. I wouldn’t try to manifest flannel weather just yet.
Fall left. Temps will climb into the mid 80’s today, and dewpoint will hang around in the mid 60’s. Kinda warm and sticky feeling out there. Dewpoint/Humidity conversion chart below.
HRRR has us no rain. Dry streak continues.
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