Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)
Hot, Little Humid Friday & Saturday
Temps will hit 88° both days, compounded by rising humidity. Dewpoints today will top 60°, tomorrow afternoon, they’ll approach 65°. Sticky, almost uncomfortable:
Rain Possible Saturday
A cold front will sweep some scattered showers across Middle Tennessee in the afternoon, but ETAs in the models vary:
NAM4 thinks the showers will be an early-arriver:
The rest of the models expect the rain to come mid-afternoon. That’s what I expect to happen. A few things about them:
1. As the line sweeps across, it’ll be broken (not a solid line) — so not everyone will see rain. In fact, maybe only a few of us will.
2. This line is going to be very weak. If unlucky, you may see a brief heavy shower, but generally, rain amounts should not be enough to rain out outdoorsy stuff.
3. A thunderstorm or two is unlikely yet possible. Nothing strong or severe is forecast.
Cold Front Clears Us Out and Cools Us Off Sunday Thru the Work Week
Dew points and temperatures will return to a Fall Is Coming pattern.
Any Long-Range Rain Concerns?
The models are all over the place and will change, but for now there are chances of rain Wednesday (well east of us) and Friday (for us).
Note, however, that two days ago the models “agreed” on our cold front arriving Sunday with rain Monday — notice that’s completely gone from our forecast. Betting/fretting on model accuracy as far out as next Friday isn’t worth it.
That said, the Euro model is keeping us dry Friday through Sunday of next week. The GFS isn’t. This is a flip flop from yesterday, when the GFS said “dry” and the Euro model said “rain.”
Again, when it comes to far-away models:
Pilgrimage Festival Reply Finalists
So, here’s the thing. This contest is totally subjective. There are no rules. We’re just picking the one we like the best today. There were lots of weather puns and several GIFs, all very much respected and enjoyed. There were Willie Nelson and Steven Tyler jokes, heartfelt personal stories, and the classic direct approach. There were threats of frog stranglers and Adele.
The thing is, Will and I are good friends, but if we’re being honest, we are pretty different people. The things he and I both really like are pretty small. It’s probably fair to say the list consists of weather (obviously), Nashville, The Wire, and The West Wing.
— Terri Hall (@bballmommy44) September 16, 2015
— Robert Cunningham (@robmcunningham) September 15, 2015
Better judges would have picked a better winner. But, honestly, there was only one Omar entry (from The Wire), and we thought it was funny. The winner is:
— katie (@katiemaybe) September 17, 2015
One other thing — we have another pair to give away next week.
Finally, Most Importantly, We’ve Added a Third Member to the Team
Will and I have full time jobs. We’re married. Will has 3 kids, I have 2. We have a lot going on. For over a year we’ve been looking for someone to be the third member of @NashSevereWx. We found the perfect person.
Will and I have complete confidence in Andrew. As the weeks/months/years pass by, we are confident you will, too.
All that said, nothing will change. Just adding another chef to the kitchen. You’ll still get what you hope to get on Twitter and here on the website, whatever that is.
Hopefully more of this.
And less of this.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs