Quiet Week Ahead

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

We hit 83° today.

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No Rain This Week

Temps will warm a bit every day. Starting Monday: 81° – 84° – 84° – 85° – 84°, then 82° on Saturday.

We Aren’t In A Drought

“Official” rainfall is 0.66 below normal since September 1, but we’re running 1.53″ above normal in 2015.

Next Chance of Rain?

I’ve been watching this very closely for several days, mostly because we’re the weather watchers for Pilgrimage next weekend. The weather models have been all over the place. First the GFS said rain, the Euro didn’t, then they flip-flopped, then on each run they were wildly inconsistent with their previous runs. Same old medium-range model shenanigans — they just aren’t as good as we want them to be. They’re unable to deliver the forecast certainty everyone thinks, but doesn’t, exist on the crap apps on your phone.

The thing to watch is an upper level low expected to develop in the Carolinas/Eastern Tennessee near the end of the week. We think that’ll be a rainmaker. The question is how far west it’ll go. Currently we think it’ll sprinkle the plateau, but with each model run, it continues to move around. Still nothing to worry about. At worst, this is just some light rain.

The Euro model has this rain FAR off to the east. Again, so much uncertainty here, I can’t believe I’ve written this much about it.

So, that’s good news for weekend activities.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.