Heat and humidity will continue through Wednesday, but rain isn’t expected over the next 7 days.
A dry north wind is on the way thanks to Hurricane Maria.
Hurricane Maria will pass northward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by mid-week, then into the North Atlantic Ocean at the end of the week. We’re on the western side of it, and as a result we will receive a dry northerly surface wind.
Heat and humidity remain. Mid/Upper 60° dewpoints with a high temp of 91° in the shade. It’s going to be much hotter in the sun.
Gross.
Our chance of a brief shower today is small. Someone in Tennessee will get a little wet, it probably won’t be us, but it might. A classic summertime battle of competing forces is to blame for forecast uncertainty:
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Latest HRRR Model Loop
Nothing on radar right now, but with ample surface heating this afternoon, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across the area. No widespread severe weather is anticipated, but these rainers could produce heavy rainfall if you get caught under “one”.
Welcome to the weekend. The headline over the next several days is “heat”. At least through midweek next week, temperatures will run 7-10ºF above average for this time of the year.
GFS Model 2-Meter Temperatures Through Sunday
The GFS has temps running in the mid 80s for Friday into the weekend, but this seems underdone. Expect upper 80s at the very least to continue as high pressure builds back in strong by the beginning of next week. A chance for storms exists Saturday afternoon, but the atmosphere will be somewhat moisture starved, so not everyone gets rain.
Really a whole lot of nothing looks to continue for the foreseeable future with our forecast. Current surface analysis over the country shows this pretty bland weather pattern here in Tennessee with a high pressure influencing our conditions.
Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms are rolling through north-central Middle Tennessee this morning and a couple are packing a real punch. Energy from a shortwave will continue to slowly traverse the Nashville area today, keeping the chance for rain going through early evening.
Rest of today appears to be a continuation of that “summertime feeling”. Highs will top off just below 90° with dew point temps cruising in the mid-60s. Popcorn afternoon showers are possible once again today, any shower that develops should die-off by the evening hours.
Monday — Rain chances remain very low. The better rain chances will be northwest of Nashville.
Rest of the Week — The morning shift at NWS-Nashville thought Wednesday afternoon would bring the best chance of rain.
Today — Temps soaring to 88° this afternoon should lift our sweaty, drippy air mass, producing a few pop up showers or weak storms somewhere in Middle Tennessee. The rain will probably be northwest of us, but we can’t rule out a shower. Without low instability, this will probably be a non-event, which will end as temps fall tonight.
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