This morning my friend Melissa asked “when do I need to pay attention to this?”
Tonight, Melissa. Tonight.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will form and move from northwest to southeast across Middle Tennessee tonight. All models show this. Below is one, the HRRR, one of my favorite weather models:
(If you read our forecast this morning, the new information on tomorrow night’s severe storm threat is in blue).
Official NashSevereWx Correspondents dispatched to Memphis this morning confirm the rain falling now is cold.
It’s going to get breezy this afternoon, even windy, with gusts up to 25 MPH.
High today 64°.
Afternoon rain is expected. It should cross the Tennessee River around lunchtime and arrive here around late afternoon, aka, around the time it’s getting dark. The HRRR model illustrates:
(If you read this morning’s blog, the text in blue is new)
Saturday was our last day of regular daylight because:
Sunup at 6:12 AM. Temp 48°. Afternoon high 65°.
Sundown at 4:48 PM. Four forty eight.
I don’t want to bury the lead about Monday night’s severe weather concern, but I will, because chronology prevents confusion.
Fog has been a pre-dawn problem in spots. It should lift around sunrise.
With clouds around, our afternoon high is only going to reach 54º here in Nashville.
Rain is approaching from the west, but should mostly break up before arrival. Still, the HRRR model thinks there’s a chance of a passing shower tonight:
The cold front is pushing through this late afternoon, and with it, some light showers.
That green line of light rain to our west, seen below through 2:48 PM, marks the cold front.
Behind that, colder temps! The HRRR model illustrates the arrival of colder air through the night and overnight.
The cold front causing all this rain still has not yet pushed through. Only 0.36″ so far in BNA’s official rain. This system is underperforming model data. Only about 0.5″ total expected.
Rain is expected Thursday morning. There’s a very low possibility of a tornado.
Storm Prediction Center just introduced a 2% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of us overnight or in the morning. Expect a rainy morning commute with about 1" of rain. pic.twitter.com/xpXFdMMXry
Winds out of the south are nice and breezy, could see some gusts at 15 to 20 mph. Overnight temps in the low 60s.
No rain.
Models continue the trend of slowing down this cold front’s passage. Trick-or-treat hours now look mostly rainless, though a few quick showers could push through.
You must be logged in to post a comment.