Warning: Weather models aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms.
Summer storms are very hard to predict, but as a general rule: rain and storms are mostly likely to develop between mid/late afternoon and early evening.
Category: Featured Blog
Rain & Storms Likely Next Few Days, Here’s Our Best Idea of When They’ll Be Here
There are times weather models can see what’s coming so we can provide you a good, reasonably reliable (not perfect), “when and where.”
This is not one of those times.
Weather models, which in a perfect world should arrive at the same thing, predict different things. Weather models also aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms.
A Few Strong Storms Remain Possible This Afternoon/Evening
Welcome to July!
Storms This Afternoon, Exiting By Evening
UPDATE as of 5:00PM CDT: The eastern half of both Davidson/Williamson remain under a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5) for damaging winds and some hail.
We’ve seen several showers and thunderstorms impact Davidson/Williamson counties today, some with ~40 mph wind gusts. More could develop through the evening, so we will be monitoring radar for developments.
Showers/Thunderstorms Possible Tonight & Tomorrow. However, Lots of Model Uncertainty
Warmer, Humidity Going Up, and Storms Possible
Opportunity for Rain/Storms Begins Today
Update: We’ve seen a few showers and storms roll through the bi-county area today. These should dissipate in conjunction with sunset, but heavy downpours remain possible through the evening.
Friday will provide increased rain chances, but particularly Friday night into Saturday. We will need to carefully monitor the potential for strong/severe storms on Saturday. While shear values are not very impressive, instability is high enough that when combined, could produce a few misbehavers. The biggest concerns would be hail and damaging winds on Saturday. All of that being said, we are not yet under any formal severe risk.
Transitioning Back into Those Summer-Like Temps Tomorrow
Clear Skies into the Evening
Today appears to be our last day without those afternoon isolated shower chances. Enjoy our one last semi-bearable day.
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Into this evening, clear skies will prevail. Temps will not drop as low as they have in recent times, with overnight lows only expected to reach down into the low 70s.
Wednesday:Sunny, Rest of Week:Stormy
Wednesday Begins A Pattern Change
GFS Model Wednesday Through Friday Evening
What’s the pattern change, you ask? Hotter temps and higher humidity is what’s in store heading into late week. Sunshine will be out in full force Wednesday, but dew points will remain in the mid-upper 50s. In other words, the air won’t be too “heavy” or overbearing quite yet.
Comfortable Temps to Start the Week, Hot & Muggy to End
Some Showers Overnight, Clearing Tomorrow
Into this evening, all evening plans are a go. Enjoy the cool temps!
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Late tonight, we could see a few scattered showers. The latest run of the HRRR shows these showers moving in around to after midnight tonight. Unless you are up that late, you probably won’t even wake up from them.
Summer Slowly Returns This Week
Missing: Summertime Humidity
Today: Incredible
83°, with the dewpoint in the low 50°s. Low fifties! It’s like it’s not even summer!
Monday: Still Incredible
Low 80°s temps, and as far from summertime humidity as we can get.
Tuesday: Will Rain Sneak In?
Very light rain may sneak in from Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday morning, but it looks pretty iffy. The GFS model shows only a sprinkle passing through Tuesday morning: