Below is one of the runs from this morning’s HRRR model. It shows a few scattered showers this morning followed by a clearing in the late morning hours.
I doubt rain happens today. As I write, the satellite is clean. The model is probably wrong.
The HRRR and NAM 3km models are showing some agreement today as they spell out spotty showers. An upper-level shortwave trough will be influencing our weather for parts of the day today.
The humid, summer-like conditions continue for our area.
Expect temps to crawl into the upper 80s with dew points settled into the low 60s. It’s going to be a hot day!
It’s getting humid. We will be muggy for the foreseeable future as dew points get into the low 60s.
It’s time to dust off the trusty dew point interpreter, updated for 2018:
“Unsettled” weather has arrived, aka summer in Middle Tennessee.
A loop of current satellite imagery shows the lack of clouds over our area. For today, our weather is being heavily influenced by a ridge of clear, dry weather to our west. Expect today to be warm but dry.
The models think today will be sun-filled, less humid, with a high temperature at 81º and falling dew points in the 50º range.
However, our atmosphere remains the same as it was yesterday. We remain on the back side of the system that brought us gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, and small hail yesterday and last night. This afternoon and tonight, most storm ingredients will be there. Plenty of instability. Dry air aloft and “cold pools” sitting atop us, both help storm development.
The HRRR was right this morning. Heavy rain, lightning, and small hail trucked through between 5 PM and 6 PM.
The HRRR thinks a little more rain is possible in the wee hours of the morning (before rush hour), but of little to no consequence:
It’s sunny now. Expect temps in the 80s.
Sunshine may not last all day. We may see a few waves of rain and storms tonight.
The HRRR model thinks rain with a few thunderstorms will race in from the north early this evening (5 PM or 6 PM or so), and again before midnight.
Rain moved in early this morning, although it’s been holding back a bit through mid-morning. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity around lunch and continue into the afternoon.
How long will it stay?
Therefore, those with plans outside tonight should have a rain plan, and keep an eye on the radar (and our Twitter feed). Most models have some rain sweeping by at various times tonight, but it looks pretty weak.
Temps today are going to feel more like summer than spring. Highs could creep into the upper 80s! Without clouds, we’ll bake a bit. Some of you may even see your car thermometer hit 90.
Will we see rain today? Not likely.
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