“A major flood threat will focus over areas south of I-40 this morning through Friday” [then will] “continue for areas south of I-40 and spread northward covering all of Middle Tennessee [including Nashville] Friday night through Saturday.” –NWS-Nashville
Summary
After a brief drying period, rain has arrived and will continue through Saturday night. A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire Middle Tennessee region including Davidson and Williamson counties from tonight until Saturday evening as the potential exists for an additional 2- 4 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts where storms tend to “train” or sit over an area dumping rain. The concern for flooding is big. Another issue that we may have to deal with is a potential severe storms Saturday afternoon. More on this later. A cold front sweeping through Sunday will bring a much needed end to the rain with temperatures remaining right around normal or just a couple degrees above.
We’ve had Flash Flooding this morning. More rain, a bit lighter than what we saw this morning, is on the way this afternoon. It should end tonight. Thursday we will have have a short break from rain, with more rain approaching Thursday night and arriving Friday. Additional flooding possible Friday. Saturday will also be rainy, with potential for additional flooding and severe thunderstorms.
Forecast totals from NWS-Nashville:
A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect this afternoon and lasts until Thursday morning for Nashville, Williamson County, and most of Middle Tennessee.
Rain will start this afternoon, so be sure to have that umbrella handy. Rain will intensify during the evening commute, becoming more widespread by 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM, and continuing into the evening.
Well, if you’re sick and tired of the rain, I have some bad news for you…it isn’t over just yet. Middle Tennessee is going to see numerous waves of heavy rainfall and flooding Tuesday through Sunday.
When will the rain end?
Hang in there, HRRR and NAM think the rain should come to an end about midnight. Temps will drop overnight, falling to the upper 30°s by Monday morning’s commute.
The band of rain has slowed down, allowing more rain to fall over Nashville than previously thought, we could expect 0.5″ to 0.8″ through the night. NWS Nashville does not expect flooding concerns today.
After yesterday’s cold front, we’re left with a relatively cool day. High temps will only push into the mid 40°s in the afternoon, a bit cool for what we normally see in mid February.
Dry air will try to mix in with our clouds in the afternoon, so we could see some thinning. Don’t expect to spot much of Mr. Sunshine.
The temperatures think today is opposite day. Instead of warming through the day, temps will be cooling through the day. Why? A cold front passed through during the morning hours.
Drizzle is already showing up on the radar in west Tennessee, moving closer. However, air is super dry aloft, so it’ll take time for rain to hit the ground. Therefore, for most of the afternoon Williamson and Davidson Counties will be rainless and overcast.
It is a very pleasant and mild afternoon out there today without temperatures topping out in the low 60’s. These conditions will not last however, as an approaching cold front will bring temperatures back to near normal for this time of the year, along with renewed chances for rain. I have a map below which shows the location of our cold front marked with the blue triangles as of 12 PM Central Standard time. Out ahead of this front, we are in a warm sector with a mild and breezy southwesterly flow. As this front approaches and moves through tonight we will see a drop in temperatures and even a slight chance of a shower.
The month of February has been a wet one so far, with rainfall values well above average. The Nashville Weather Service has recorded a value of 6.18 inches of rainfall for the month already, and it’s only the 13th! This is four and a half inches above the normal for this month. The good news is we are seeing a few dry days ahead before the next round of rain returns. Today, we will see a sunny, dry day with temperatures rising into the low 50’s.
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