(Editor’s comments in blue).
Get out and enjoy today. If you need to do anything outside, or put gas in your car, that kind of stuff, do it today or, if you love risk and adventure, Saturday afternoon.
In 48 hours a heavy rain event may turn to snow, possibly cause a flash freeze, and I can’t stop myself from doing this special forecast.
There was inspiration.
I went to the gym tonight. Got home – TMI Alert!!! – got in the shower, water was warm, then suddenly all the hot water ran out but I was still sudsy and had to suffer shivering through the cold water, which I flipped off then on, then got out of there. Fast.
We’ve already had some rain fall this morning, with a few more showers lingering through this afternoon and evening.
High temps today will run a few degrees warmer than yesterday at around 50°.
The Nam 3km model illustrates the progress of the showers through the day today. It’s looping through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.
The warming trend started Wednesday will continue on Friday with high temps in the low 50°s. Clouds will hang around through the day, but we should remain dry.
Friday is the last day we’ll see this week where it’s both warm(ish) and dry. Great day to finish any small outdoor tasks before Old Man Winter arrives late Saturday.
First, a quick aside: Now that we’re drawing closer to Saturday, we’re beginning to see where the specific forecast challenges are. Keep in mind, snow/winter forecasting is tricky and could change at the drop of a hat! Stay tuned for more updates as they come!
Late Friday, a swift-moving warm front will push north through Middle Tennessee. This warm front will bring our high temp on Saturday into the low 60°s and plenty of Gulf moisture into the area. The moisture is key to why we expect so much rain.
A large, strong cold front will then swing through in the early morning hours of Saturday. The NAM 3km has heavy rain/thunderstorms approaching Nashville just before sunrise. See gif below – the animation begins just after midnight on Friday, ending Saturday about 6 PM.
The NAM model is known for being aggressive when it comes to storms; meaning its bark is worse than its bite more often than not. NWS Nashville is calling for plenty of rain with a few thunderstorms in the mix – not expecting severe storms. The big thing to watch for Saturday morning and afternoon is the heavy rain.
The Weather Prediction Center is still expecting us to see upwards of 2 – 3″ of rain between Saturday and Sunday morning. As of now, there is a concern of flooding along rivers and creeks if this much rain does fall over us but no watches or advisories have been issued yet.
So.. to Snow or not to Snow?
As of now, it’s still hard to say. On Saturday evening, the cold Arctic air will make its arrival, but will there be enough moisture in the air to form snowflakes? The sad answer: not very likely, at least not enough to make a good snowball with.
NWS Nashville forecast has this to say about snow:
"My latest forecast snowfall totals still remain in the dusting to 1 inch range, with lowest amounts in our southwest, and highest amounts over our northwest counties where colder air arrives earliest..."
We are probably all sick of the rain we have had the past several weeks, so get out and enjoy today because more is on the way for the weekend.
For today, though, our weather is being dominated by an area of high pressure off to our south. Clouds are being stubborn today, which will likely keep temps in the 40s.
These sad clouds refuse to let go. Check out the satellite before lunch:
Total blerg.
That could change late this evening. We’ll stay dry and cool today with high temps struggling to break into the low 40°s. And the sun may break through later today. Hopefully. Maybe.
Today is going to be one of those days where you look outside and think it’s going to snow. Except it’s not. Those overcast skies are not going to budge at all today, and temperatures are staying put with the clouds.
I don’t know if it’s going to snow this winter. Or if it does, when it will. Or how much we will get.
(Neither does your 10-45 day forecast on some weather apps, by the way. For more on that see these football analogy tweets, or just keep reading).
A very light shower is possible today, but probably not. More likely mostly cloudy, temps in the upper 40°s. Those high temps are normal for January 13.
HRRR model illustrates showers wandering across Middle Tennessee:
Another weak line of showers is located to the west of Nashville, which will push east overnight.
Models do show a few rain showers possible after sunrise, with most rain east of Nashville by noon. All rain chances should be gone by late afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase today in advance of our next weather maker that will begin to move in this evening as an upper level low begins to pass to our north. Expect our afternoon highs to reach the mid-40s as the cloud deck advances from west to east.
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