–Updates in blue, below.–Note this likely will be our last long-form blog update for today–Additional information will be posted to Twitter which can be found here and/or here even if you don’t have a Twitter account. read more

This morning my friend Melissa asked “when do I need to pay attention to this?”

Tonight, Melissa. Tonight.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will form and move from northwest to southeast across Middle Tennessee tonight. All models show this. Below is one, the HRRR, one of my favorite weather models: read more

(If you read our forecast this morning, the new information on tomorrow night’s severe storm threat is in blue).

Cold Rain

Official NashSevereWx Correspondents dispatched to Memphis this morning confirm the rain falling now is cold. read more

(If you read this morning’s blog, the text in blue is new)

Saturday was our last day of regular daylight because:

Your 25 Hour Sunday Looks Shabby

Sunup at 6:12 AM. Temp 48°. Afternoon high 65°.

Sundown at 4:48 PM. Four forty eight. read more

I don’t want to bury the lead about Monday night’s severe weather concern, but I will, because chronology prevents confusion.

Today

Fog has been a pre-dawn problem in spots. It should lift around sunrise. read more

With clouds around, our afternoon high is only going to reach 54º here in Nashville.

Rain is approaching from the west, but should mostly break up before arrival. Still, the HRRR model thinks there’s a chance of a passing shower tonight: read more

The cold front is pushing through this late afternoon, and with it, some light showers.

That green line of light rain to our west, seen below through 2:48 PM, marks the cold front.

Behind that, colder temps! The HRRR model illustrates the arrival of colder air through the night and overnight. read more

The cold front causing all this rain still has not yet pushed through. Only 0.36″ so far in BNA’s official rain. This system is underperforming model data. Only about 0.5″ total expected. read more

Rain is expected Thursday morning. There’s a very low possibility of a tornado.

Storm Prediction Center just introduced a 2% probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of us overnight or in the morning. Expect a rainy morning commute with about 1" of rain. pic.twitter.com/xpXFdMMXry read more