Snow Winding Down

Enjoy the Winter Wonderland (if You Can Call It That…)

Pockets of snow dot the radar this morning. It will continue to fall through about noon.

HRRR simulated radar, valid 7am through 1pm Saturday

Snow is sticking to some roads. Be extra cautious if you are driving this morning. Especially bridges and overpasses that may have some frozen patches. read more

A Snow Update.

Initial, big snowflakes now falling early this evening will melt on above-freezing surfaces. Temps are supercold and below-freezing above 3,000 feet. Temps are above-freezing below 3,000 feet. Flakes lack the time to change back to sleet or rain by the time they hit the earth. Splat. Melt. read more

Light Rain (and Maybe a Couple Snowflakes) Friday Night

We have a lot to follow in this forecast. Let’s start with this afternoon and early evening. We’re expecting rain to being this afternoon, and a rumble of thunder isn’t out of the question. We’ve recently been given a general thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (below). read more

Friday Night - Saturday Morning Snow: What Time, How Much, Accumulation Potential, & No, We Aren’t Sure About Much Of This.

It’ll probably rain a little before midnight tonight, no big deal.

Models indicate snow Friday night lasting off and on overnight into Saturday morning.

What Time?

Rain is expected to change to snow Friday night between 9 PM and midnight: read more

Light Rain Thursday Night, (Low Confidence) Wintry Precip Friday Night

Rain Thursday Night

Sunny skies and pleasant during the day. Southerly winds could gust upwards of 25 mph.

That’s all ahead of an approaching front tonight.

HRRR Model shows a weak band of showers moving through Thursday Evening into the overnight hours. read more

Slight Chance of Rain on Thursday Night, Light Rain/Snow Chance on Saturday.

Dry Until Thursday Night

It’s noticeably warmer today…same for tomorrow with sunny skies sticking around. Light south winds today should become more gusty Thursday ahead of our next system.

An incoming front may bring a spotty shower late Thursday night into early Friday morning. read more

About Yesterday, then Looking Ahead to the Weekend

(Sunday’s forecast for Monday’s snow wasn’t horrible, wasn’t great. Looked like SE Will Co could get clipped and that’s what happened. The “place” forecast was good, the “amount” forecast was not. All the models “missed” this event, a reminder that weather models are not forecasts. Forecasts are not truth. Future prediction is hard. The arrogant forecast will be humbled. –David.) read more

It’s Snowing!!! (In some places)

It has been a tale of two counties this morning

Parts of Williamson County have picked up an inch…

This isn’t even at elevation.

Even nearing 2 inches near Thompson Station..

Those in Davidson County haven’t been as lucky

Moisture that has infiltrated Williamson has been losing the battle with the dry air north of I-40 in Davidson County. read more

Doesn’t Look Good, Snow Fans

Confidence is “low to medium” (NWS-Nashville) in forecast accuracy for snow Monday.

Variables include:

  1. Temperatures. South of us, snow is likely Monday morning. We may be too far north to get snow. Snow may not even extend into Will Co, much less Nashville, but it’ll be close. If snow gets far enough north, by mid-morning surface temps may warm into the mid-30s, causing any flakes to splat:melt. It may even get warm enough to change snow to rain. Noon temps around 35, upper 30s possible Monday afternoon.
  2. Moisture. Most moisture will be well south of us. We will get the northern edge. If we had more moisture incoming, temps wouldn’t rise as fast. But moisture is limited, so those at elevation (hills, on bridges and overpasses) may be the only spots cold enough to collect snow. There’s just not enough “stuff” there to tap to make a good snow event.

NWS-Nashville make no changes to its snow total forecast. Under a half inch, which includes us getting nothing. Most of those north of I-40 get shut out: read more

Low Expectations for Snow Monday

Snow will pile up across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi today and tonight.

Monday this system will turn into Tennessee and weaken.

We may get no local snow. The best snow chances are between us and Chattanooga. read more