Most of the daylight Wednesday will be dry.
Around dinnertime or a little before, precip should be moving in. No storms. Cold rain most likely, and maybe some snow.
Euro Model (below) shows *maybe* a light rain/snow mix.
Temps and dewpoints will rise through the afternoon, as shown here by the GFS model:
This lifting warm front is associated with a surface low moving out of the Plains into the Ohio Valley. That low is going to drag a cold front across Middle Tennessee and set off another round of rain, and perhaps storms — some possibly severe.
Off and on rain will continue through Sunday afternoon into tonight. Light and nondisruptive, not a washout.
The HRRR model thinks the heavier stuff will arrive around 4 am. Either way, this is an early shift / while we sleep heavy rain event, almost 1″ expected. Isolated storms possible but nothing severe or concerning. Sleep peacefully tonight.
A quick blast of snow is possible around midnight. HRRR model below:
This event shouldn’t threaten your Monday morning travels or inconvenience you in any other way.
Forecast is of low confidence as models continue to be all over the place as they struggle with the upcoming fast, split flow upper level pattern.