Hot, Dry Week with Low Rain Chances; Rain Chances Increase a Bit This Weekend; Fall Temps Far Away

We’ve got quite the clear morning over Nashville. A few pockets of fog are mixing out with the rising sun just to our north.

Expect mostly clear skies today. A few puffy clouds could work their way into our skies.

As for rain chances, we should remain dry today. Lack of clouds and rain to cool us off will allow for high temps to easily crawl into the low 90s.

That said, the HRRR model thinks showers will sprout later this afternoon. It’s hard to totally rule out rain when the HRRR model looks like this:

Wednesday

The NAM12 model keeps us dry for the most part on Wednesday. A weak surface high will set up to our east, squashing rain chances for much of the day.

High temps, again, will jump into the low 90s.

Thursday should also be dry.

Rain Chances Increase a Bit This Weekend

High temps will fall into the upper 80s from increased cloud cover. Rain-suppressing high pressure will depart, reintroducing rain chances.

Weekend rain chances remain iffy as models try to figure out what a cold front to our NW will do. Right now we think that front will stay up to our NW, meaning heat and humidity-fueled rain showers should randomly pop up in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Most people are unlikely to see rain. This is typical for summertime, even though technically the fall season will have started.

The official start to fall is a few short days away. Temps won’t begin their descent into the cooler range until middle of next week when a cold front is projected to pass through.

We’re patiently waiting on fall and a break in the heat!


Sunny and Hot Today; Rain Chances Increase Tomorrow; Next Week is Hot

Caught between Tropical Storm Florence to the east and a high pressure bubble to our north, it’s going to be hot and dry for us here today. Rain chances are slim this afternoon, but a quick thunderstorm could go up on radar.

High temps in the low 90s with heat index values pushing into the mid 90s.

Winds will pick up this afternoon as Florence draws nearer, gusting into the low 20’s at times.

Sunday

Temperatures will be lower by a few degrees as influences from Florence push west. Clouds will build in, keeping high temps from climbing so high.

Rain chances increasing on Sunday evening as outer bands throw some storms our way. A few rumbles of thunder aren’t out of the question, but mostly we should see a few, quick downpours.

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical Storm Florence continues to weaken over land. The National Hurricane Center has the storm track scraping eastern Tennessee Sunday evening. A few showers and gusting winds will affect Middle Tennessee until Monday before clearing up.

Peek into Next Week

Late Monday we’ll see the final effects of Florence move on to the northeast. An upper level high pressure system will build over Tennessee beginning Tuesday. Rain chances will fall and high temps will rise through the early half of next week.


Summertime Heat Through the Weekend; Update on Florence

Dewpoints have returned to oppressive, and it definitely feels like it. I wish I could say there’s relief on the way, but fall-like temps have come and gone.

High temps today will be around 90, but with the dewpoint sitting around 70, the heat index will be in the upper 90s.

Excess moisture at the surface could cause some afternoon storms to go up overhead. Should be easy to dodge.

Hot, Summertime Weekend

Warming continues into the weekend. Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be the same story: high temps in the upper 80s, low 90s. Summertime humidity will push the heat index into the mid/upper 90s every day.

Afternoon storms are a possibility, keep a radar handy if one goes up near you.

Update: Hurricane Florence

Florence weakened quite a bit yesterday. It is currently a category 2 hurricane, expected to make landfall early tomorrow morning. Once it makes landfall and pushes southwest, it will weaken tremendously.

We could see some impacts at the beginning of next week; Sunday through Tuesday. However, our NWS Nashville office believes the heaviest rain and strongest wind gusts will be well to our E.

We are all watching this storm very closely and will keep you updated with any impacts that we could see here in Davidson and Williamson counties!


Fall Temps Today, Summer Temps Tomorrow; Update on Florence

Widespread cloud cover continues to push temps high down into the upper 70s.

Dewpoints have fallen back into the low/mid 60s. It’s not going to be overly pleasant outside today, but a break in the heat is always welcome!

Rain chances today? The HRRR is keeping us dry throughout the day. Should be a pleasant, quiet evening.

Warming on Wednesday

Look for high temps to jump back into the mid 80s. A funnel of southwest winds is bringing moisture back to Tennessee, as part of a very large upper trough-ridge. You can see it (below) spanning from the desert southwest, up through the Ohio Valley.

This moisture will bring dewpoints up, increasing the humidity.

A few afternoon storms could go up overhead, but we should remain mostly dry.

Same Story for Thursday

Thursday will be markedly warmer, but similar conditions with low(ish) humidity.

 

Update: Hurricane Florence

Hurricane Florence strengthened to Major Hurricane status early yesterday. Overnight, the storm weakened a bit, but as of this morning, it’s a Category 4 hurricane – max sustained wind of 130 mph.

Projected landfall remains a bit fuzzy as models continue to nail down when they think it’ll arrive – could be late Thursday to early Friday.

The GFS and Euro have aligned a tad overnight. Each are seeing the storm slow down upon arrival to the US. A slow storm means increased rainfall over a smaller area. The flooding threat continues to rise, along with hurricane and tropical storm-force winds. Nonetheless, the Carolinas and Virginia are in for a very hard impact from an incredibly dangerous hurricane.

Will we see impacts here?

Yes. What exactly will they be? We cannot say for certain.

I’ll leave this bit from our NWS Nashville office regarding some expected impacts in Middle Tennessee:

"So, what does this simply mean for the mid state region? There
could be the potential for some breeze winds with gusts across
the Cumberland Plateau Region, especially the Upper Cumberland
Region Sun afternoon thru Mon evening."

Large uncertainties remain with this system, especially regarding impacts here in Nashville. As always, stay tuned for updated forecasts here and at @NashSevereWx on Twitter!


Cloudy Today; Rain Chances Increasing Tonight and Tomorrow; Break in the Heat for Early Week

Rain is setting up to our west as a large frontal system is organizing over south Missouri.

For today, most rain chances will remain to our west. Daytime heating will cause some rain/thunderstorms to go up over our area in the afternoon. If you plan to be outdoors, pack the umbrella.

Skies will likely turn cloudy and stay that way the rest of the day keeping high temps in the upper 80s.  This sets us up for tomorrow…

Rain/Storms on Sunday

The low to our west will begin pushing east late this evening. Rain chances will increase through the night and into the morning. Some storms could reach severe levels, with rain and gusty winds being the main factors.

High temps in the upper 70s.

This front will pass quickly to our north but rain will linger over our area for most of the day. We could see upwards of an inch of rain on Sunday.

Early Next Week

As the surface front passes on Sunday, we’ll settle back into our normal summer conditions, but check out those high temps! Monday will feel like a perfect (but partly cloudy) fall day, and through Wednesday, high temps will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Afternoon storm chances remain in the forecast.


Unsettled Rain Pattern; Wet Weekend

High temps in the upper 80s with clouds hanging overhead all day. TD Gordon keeping our dewpoints high; humidity is oppressive.

Tropical Depression Gordon

TD Gordon has moved into western Mississippi – seen here as the small area of blue and white convection over the MS delta. Today it’ll move further west into Arkansas, pushing more moisture into Davidson and Williamson counties.

With this increase in moisture, we will also see an increase in precipitation chances. The HRRR (below) shows a large area of rain and some storms passing through in the afternoon.

Friday

High temps will climb a bit tomorrow, close to 90 for us. Dewpoints in the low 70s.

Rain Chances

High pressure over the east coast will build west as TD Gordon continues into Arkansas. Rain chances for Friday are low, but afternoon showers/storms could go up overhead.

Weekend Rain

Rain chances on the increase as a shortwave trough pushes the remnants of Gordon towards us. We aren’t expecting to see severe weather over the weekend, just plenty of rain and general storms. We’ll talk about timing as we get closer.

 


Spotty Storms Possible This Afternoon; Watching TS Gordon; Another Hot & Humid Weekend Ahead

Today

Hot and muggy. High temps in the low 90s with a heat index in the upper 90s.

The HRRR model thinks we could see a few scattered storms this afternoon/evening. This model thought the same thing yesterday and nothing happened. But, it could be right today. Any storms that go up will be traveling quickly from south to north.

Still Watching TS Gordon – no major impacts

Gordon remained a tropical storm overnight. Landfall is projected to occur later this evening, probably as a Cat 1 hurricane.

No meaningful impacts from Gordon are expected here. Later in the weekend Gordon will be picked up over the Plains (in Missouri) by a shortwave trough and bring it east towards us. Rain chances will increase later in the weekend but there is no reason to think it will be a big deal for us.

Wednesday

Increase in cloud cover will bring high temps down on Wednesday. High temps in the mid 80s. Oppressive humidity remains.

A few afternoon storms aren’t out of the question. If any go up they’ll be easy to dodge.

Thursday & Friday

We have a chance of rain on both Thursday and Friday, including downpours with a few strong thunderstorms in the mix.

Thick cloud cover will break up Thursday evening. With nothing to block out the sunlight, Friday’s temps will easily jump into the mid 90s.

Summer heat will not let go!

With substantial heat and humidity in place this weekend, scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected to develop.


Slim Rain Chances in the Afternoon; Summertime Pattern Continues; Pretty Good Labor Day

Happy First Day of September!

Meteorological Fall

If you follow the meteorology community on social media, you may see the term “Meteorological Fall” thrown around today. This refers to the beginning of what are considered the “fall months” of September, October, November. Not be confused with the fall season which begins on September 22! Fall temps are still out of reach.

So, Earth Wind & Fire fans, the 21st day of September is the last day of summer this year.

Plans Today/Tonight? See below for more details:

We’ve had a pretty thick cloud cover over Nashville this morning. These clouds should thin out by the early afternoon, allowing high temps to reach the low 90s with high humidity.

Live on the Green

A few showers and thunderstorms could pass overhead in the early afternoon (see HRRR model below). These could be slow moving and carry with them some gusty winds and locally-heavy downpours. If you plan to attend LOTG, be prepared for scattered showers, but don’t let this low threat of a passing shower keep you off the green.

Summertime Pattern Stays for Days

A bubble of high pressure has parked over the eastern coast. It’ll stay there for few days, bring us rain-limiting sinking air. Sunday & Labor Day rain chances will be low, with high temps in the low 90s. Wind directions around the high pressure (highlighted with the yellow arrow) will keep dewpoints in the low 70s daily. Gross, but at least it’s not washing out the holiday weekend.

Low rain chances in the afternoons, sizzling temps, and muggy dewpoints will be the story through the middle of the week.

Labor Day Holiday

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, Labor Day looks mostly rainless, hot, and humid. As always in summer we could see some rain in the afternoons, so pack an umbrella just in case. Stay cool and hydrated as you enjoy your Labor Day holiday!


Clouds Keeping Temps Lower Today/Tomorrow; Next Week is Hot & Humid

Clouds will be pretty widespread today, keeping high temps in the upper 80s. Dewpoints are oppressive, in the low 70s, a normal for late-August.

Morning showers over Nashville left our atmosphere with plenty of moisture and instability that could kick off afternoon showers and storms. Any storms that go up aren’t expected to reach severe levels.

If you’ve got afternoon plans and get caught beneath a storm, you can expect gusty winds and a quick, heavy downpour.

Friday

Clouds will be taking over on Friday, which will keep high temps in the mid/upper 80s. Dewpoints still sitting in the oppressive range. Even in the shade it’s going to be hot.

We could see some storms in the afternoon. This NAM 3KM run begins early Friday morning and takes us through to midnight on Saturday. A few storms are showing up in Davidson and Williamson counties in the late afternoon on Friday. As always, keep in mind models aren’t exactly right, they just give us an idea of what we could see.

NWS Nashville thinks storms shouldn’t be severe, but they will be big rainmakers. If caught beneath one expect some heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Weekend Rain

South winds continue to bring moist, Gulf air to our counties. GOES-16 Water Vapor imagery shows this very well. The cooler, blue colors spanning from the Gulf through Tennessee represent air that has a high moisture content.

This moisture at the surface will allow for a few storms to fire up during the hottest time of the day.

High temps will be in the upper 80s on Saturday before they jump back into the low 90s on Sunday.

Peek into Next Week

A weak dome of high pressure will settle right over Middle Tennessee. Sinking motion from the high pressure will keep most storms from forming, but an afternoon shower or storm can’t be ruled out.

It’s going to be a hot and humid start to September!


Rain Chances Increase Wednesday. Rain Most Likely Thursday.

High temps will climb into the low/mid 90°s today. Dewpoints continue to stay within the low 70°s making temps feel closer to 100°.

We could see a popcorn shower/storm or two over Nashville today. The HRRR model shows storms going up during the hottest time of the day. You could see a quick downpour and hear a few rumbles of thunder, but that’s pretty unlikely. Showers should be scattered far and wide.

Afternoon plans: keep them, but be able to dodge a quick storm.

Wednesday

A weak cold front will approach us, causing rain and a few storms to break out ahead of it. There will be no break in humidity. Rain totaling 0.10″ to 0.25″ is forecast. That may rain out a few fields if you’re unlucky/lucky enough to get the bigger cells.

Timing on any storms remains unclear, but as usual in the summer, they’re more likely in the afternoon.

Quick Heat Relief Thursday…Because Rain/Storms

Rain and storms are most likely Thursday. Models aren’t giving good guidance about timing. NWS-Nashville shows rain is likely to occur during daylight hours, but it won’t be an all-day (or even a most-of-the-day) event. I even hesitate to call it an event. A few of us may get too much rain to play rolly ball sports. WPC estimates 0.25″ to 0.50″ total:

Severe weather is not expected, but you may have to shelter from lightning.

Usually when a cold front passes we get a break in the heat and humidity, but not this time. High temps will drop below the 90° mark, but the humidity will remain oppressive. The drop in temps will be due to cloud cover and rain.

The heat and humidity will remain through Labor Day, with your typical daily chance of mid/late afternoon showers and storms dying off shortly after dark.