Overnight lows in the mid 50s.
Latest HRRR shows rain starting about 9 PM. Rain showers on and off all night with warm front lifting through the Midstate.
Rain off and on all afternoon/early evening. Winds coming from the south sustained at 10 MPH, gusting stronger than that at times (near 20 MPH). Winning the toss key. Temps mid/upper 60s. Birds hate this weather.
Mostly clear skies can be found statewide. We should remain mostly cloudless throughout the day before an upper level pulse scatters showers our way this evening.
Some scattered showers will quickly push through late tonight. Greater chances can be found to the north, decreasing as you go south.
Hurricane Michael strengthened to a category 2 hurricane overnight. It’s still expected to reach Category 3 (major hurricane) status before pushing inland tomorrow.
A cold front from the west will act to guide this storm up and out of the gulf, turning it to the northeast. As seen here on the NHC’s updated track, Michael should miss us all together.
Yesterday we tied the record for the highest recorded temperature on October 5.
We tied the October 5 record high today, 92° set in 1954.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) October 5, 2018
Today was pretty close to perfect. Hope you got to spend some time outside! Tonight, we’ll dip down to 59°.
Warm, moist air will arrive tomorrow as our winds shift to the south (see above). Afternoon temps in the mid 80s, dew points returning to the mid/upper 60s. We’ll be noticeably warmer and stickier, but it won’t feel like summer has returned.
Last round of rain for a few days! The rain-making cold front will be hurried along to the east as a surface high builds in – see HRRR below.
Between cloud cover, rain-cooled air, and cooler temps at the surface, high temps today will reach the upper 60s. Yes, you read that right!
Our overnight low will settle into the upper 50s. An excess of surface moisture, cooler temps and calm overnight winds could lead to early morning fog.
Models have the weekend looking dry. Increased sunshine could bounce high temps on Friday back into the upper 70s. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s.
Same story on Saturday: partly cloudy skies, high temps in the upper 70s. Afternoon/evening plans look great!
Measurable rain chances will return to Nashville on Monday afternoon. South winds will return, bringing increased moisture and warmer temperatures by the midweek.
NWS Nashville’s thoughts on the warm pattern next week:
"Temperatures in the low to mid 80s should do it each afternoon Sun- Thu...with overnight lows in the mid 60s. All in all, next week is not a washout with time in between the raindrops to enjoy a comfortably warm weather pattern."
It’s still exceptionally humid. Dewpoints are in the low 70°s. That’s:
And here comes another wave of moisture through our area.
The HRRR model (see below) thinks rain will move through late this afternoon. The atmosphere does have energy stored up, and with a slight increase in wind shear just to the north of Nashville, a few strong storms could be in the mix. Yet the stronger storms should be pretty far north of us.
We’ve seen a few showers across the midstate this morning as a surface front has settled in right over Tennessee. This will be our main rainmaker through the weekend and into next week.
Widespread cloud cover will knock our high temps down into the upper 70s, with a low temps in the upper 60s. That a drastic improvement from this past week.
