We’ve got quite the clear morning over Nashville. A few pockets of fog are mixing out with the rising sun just to our north.
Expect mostly clear skies today. A few puffy clouds could work their way into our skies.
Caught between Tropical Storm Florence to the east and a high pressure bubble to our north, it’s going to be hot and dry for us here today. Rain chances are slim this afternoon, but a quick thunderstorm could go up on radar.
Dewpoints have returned to oppressive, and it definitely feels like it. I wish I could say there’s relief on the way, but fall-like temps have come and gone.
High temps today will be around 90, but with the dewpoint sitting around 70, the heat index will be in the upper 90s.
Widespread cloud cover continues to push temps high down into the upper 70s.
Dewpoints have fallen back into the low/mid 60s. It’s not going to be overly pleasant outside today, but a break in the heat is always welcome!
Rain chances today? The HRRR is keeping us dry throughout the day. Should be a pleasant, quiet evening.
Look for high temps to jump back into the mid 80s. A funnel of southwest winds is bringing moisture back to Tennessee, as part of a very large upper trough-ridge. You can see it (below) spanning from the desert southwest, up through the Ohio Valley.
This moisture will bring dewpoints up, increasing the humidity.
A few afternoon storms could go up overhead, but we should remain mostly dry.
Thursday will be markedly warmer, but similar conditions with low(ish) humidity.
Hurricane Florence strengthened to Major Hurricane status early yesterday. Overnight, the storm weakened a bit, but as of this morning, it’s a Category 4 hurricane – max sustained wind of 130 mph.
Projected landfall remains a bit fuzzy as models continue to nail down when they think it’ll arrive – could be late Thursday to early Friday.
The GFS and Euro have aligned a tad overnight. Each are seeing the storm slow down upon arrival to the US. A slow storm means increased rainfall over a smaller area. The flooding threat continues to rise, along with hurricane and tropical storm-force winds. Nonetheless, the Carolinas and Virginia are in for a very hard impact from an incredibly dangerous hurricane.
Will we see impacts here?
Yes. What exactly will they be? We cannot say for certain.
I’ll leave this bit from our NWS Nashville office regarding some expected impacts in Middle Tennessee:
"So, what does this simply mean for the mid state region? There could be the potential for some breeze winds with gusts across the Cumberland Plateau Region, especially the Upper Cumberland Region Sun afternoon thru Mon evening."
Rain is setting up to our west as a large frontal system is organizing over south Missouri.
For today, most rain chances will remain to our west. Daytime heating will cause some rain/thunderstorms to go up over our area in the afternoon. If you plan to be outdoors, pack the umbrella.
High temps in the upper 80s with clouds hanging overhead all day. TD Gordon keeping our dewpoints high; humidity is oppressive.
TD Gordon has moved into western Mississippi – seen here as the small area of blue and white convection over the MS delta. Today it’ll move further west into Arkansas, pushing more moisture into Davidson and Williamson counties.
Hot and muggy. High temps in the low 90s with a heat index in the upper 90s.
The HRRR model thinks we could see a few scattered storms this afternoon/evening. This model thought the same thing yesterday and nothing happened. But, it could be right today. Any storms that go up will be traveling quickly from south to north.
Happy First Day of September!
Meteorological Fall
If you follow the meteorology community on social media, you may see the term “Meteorological Fall” thrown around today. This refers to the beginning of what are considered the “fall months” of September, October, November. Not be confused with the fall season which begins on September 22! Fall temps are still out of reach.
Clouds will be pretty widespread today, keeping high temps in the upper 80s. Dewpoints are oppressive, in the low 70s, a normal for late-August.
Morning showers over Nashville left our atmosphere with plenty of moisture and instability that could kick off afternoon showers and storms. Any storms that go up aren’t expected to reach severe levels.
High temps will climb into the low/mid 90°s today. Dewpoints continue to stay within the low 70°s making temps feel closer to 100°.
We could see a popcorn shower/storm or two over Nashville today. The HRRR model shows storms going up during the hottest time of the day. You could see a quick downpour and hear a few rumbles of thunder, but that’s pretty unlikely. Showers should be scattered far and wide.
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