Still cannot get over last night. Although not the best show with the naked eye, the views thanks to cameras were absolutely spectacular. Seeing them has always been on my bucket list, but I for sure thought it would require some travel. Just amazing to be able to see them right here at home.
A very nice Friday unfolding. I got the privilege to caddy a good friend of mine in a disc golf tournament this morning, got to enjoy the nice weather and some discs.
Our dry and mild weather will continue throughout the weekend. All outdoor activities look great. Steeplechase, any Mother’s Day plans, all look splendid.
Thankfully, our severe weather threat is all over, but we are still dealing with some flooding issues. Smaller creeks and streams will slowly recede, but larger rivers such as the Cumberland will take a little bit to crest. If you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don’t drown!
Good morning. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible today and tonight with all modes possible. Flash flooding, tornadoes, damaging straight line wind and large hail.
Timing: This is especially difficult to communicate. Some may see multiple severe storms today. Some may see only one or just one nearby. It depends on many factors, many of which aren’t being handled well in the models today. This is not a one and done event and will likely last about 24 hours.
1–Severe weather requires four things. Today we had moisture ✅, instability ✅, shear ✅, but no trigger/lifting mechanism ❌.
We dodged the daytime threat. Had we had lift, very bad things would have happened somewhere in Middle TN.
Tuesday aka today
1–This Afternoon.
A few lightningstorms will be around Middle TN. Not sure exactly where and when. There should not be many of them. Not everyone will get stormed. Those storms that get going will have plenty of fuel to tap. Those could be bad storms.
1–Strong, scattered afternoon storms possible today.
Storms forming near Memphis may arrive here this afternoon. Not everyone will see a storm. Those that do will want to be inside. We are not severe-outlooked by SPC; however, our local NWS office notes enough instability and shear to power storms up. This is suggested by the HRRR model below. Storms may be strong, maybe severe, with damaging straight line winds the main severe feature. Data does not support tornado. Hail, if any, will be small. Heavy rainfall running above already saturated grounds may create temporary, localized, but real flooding in the “usual spots.” We’ll be covering this on Twitter/X today. On YouTube Live if any warnings are issued. Activity should end after dark.
In this blog: 1. Website/X change. 2. Storms tonight. 3. Severe storms outlooked this week.
1–Website change.
As you probably know, we’ve made recent attempts to become less dependent on Twitter and instead create a website from the ground up that would serve as our main timeline and push to social media platforms secondarily. The site would serve as a one stop shop. Pull it up, let it sit there, and be fed all NashSevereWx content automatically. While our developers have done amazing things with this concept under the hood of the site – and it works well most of the time for most people – none of us think it’s quite ready for us to depend on during a week when potentially severe, storms are forecast. We’re committed to getting it perfect. In the meantime, we’ll be posting our updates to Twitter (X), and only long-form blogs like this one to the website like we used to. We’ll be on our YouTube channel covering any warnings. Cool things are coming. We’ll keep you updated!
Most of the energy has been wrung out of the atmosphere. Sun is going down. Both good news for outdoor events tonight.
428 PM Two Williamson Co lightningstorms thinking about converging east of 65
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