Tuesday aka today

1–This Afternoon.

A few lightningstorms will be around Middle TN. Not sure exactly where and when. There should not be many of them. Not everyone will get stormed. Those storms that get going will have plenty of fuel to tap. Those could be bad storms.

Probabilities of X within 25 miles of us today and tonight include:

15% damaging straight line winds.

15% large hail.

5% tornado.

Timing: HRRR shows three cells in Middle TN 3-4 PM. Timing is sus so there is no ETA, no ETD. Low level bulk shear is kinda weak but suppose a tornado could form. If any of these rotating storms are going to get bad, damaging straight line winds and/or large hail are more likely than tornado.

No watch is in effect at the moment. We’ll be live Tweeting all watches, warnings, and other weather events on X today, tonight, tomorrow, and into the future, until we are poleaxed by villains or perish from age. We’ll be on YouTube Live in case of any warnings.

Don’t sleep on flooding potential with all these events. These storms ate spaghetti and other water carbs and will ‘splode with H2O. Those in flood prone areas may have to suffer localized flooding. Never drive across a flooded road!

2–Late Tonight/Overnight.

We expect another round of bad weather as a storm line drops out of KY like Cousin Eddie with pink eye. HRRR has an after-midnight arrival, no thanks but here it is, grreeeeaaat.

All modes of severe weather possible. Hail yeah, damaging straight line winds yeah, tornadoes maybe. All this despite the loss of daytime heating — this system will have plenty of OOMPH. You need to have something to wake you up in the middle of the night in the event of a severe thunderstorm, flash flood, or tornado warning. A NOAA Weather Radio, the WEA alerts on your phone (that you should enable if you’ve disabled them), and a wake-me-up app like StormWatchPlus are all common sense.

Wednesday aka tomorrow

As far as which day is worse? Doesn’t really matter if you get bonked by a storm. The one that hits you is the worst one. That said, Weds has greater wind/hail/tornado potential.

3–Weds late morning to afternoon.

HRRR and other forecast soundings show rotating lightningstorm potential locally starting around lunchtime extending into the afternoon, with hail/wind/tornado/flooding potential. Not everyone will see a storm. Those who do watch out, these could be gnarly.

4–The Main Event: Weds night.

“Wednesday night looks like the biggest of all the severe weather rounds.” NWS-Nashville.

This does not look like a “light your hair ablaze and run through the field toward the light” kind of SuperPocalypse like we see in those rare Major Spring Nado events. Why? The upper level support – while mighty – is not ideal for major outbreak.

But this event should demand your attention. Be close to shelter!

HRRR thinks bad, rotating lightningstorms will drop south from KY and get here around 7-9 PM, see below, although write that ETA in pencil and check back with us on Twitter/X for timing changes.

You will probably hear this is a “level 3 of 5.” That phrase makes me want to vomit every time I hear it because in that same “level 3 of 5” outlook there is more helpful information, which is:

The probability of X happening within 25 miles of you Weds (afternoon or night):

30% damaging straight line winds

30% large hail

10% tornado, including low probability potential for strong tornadoes rated EF-2+.

You may have seen the below NadoCast graphic running around social media. This is an AI-generated “forecast” (air quotes) that should not be ignored. But! It’s not like Moses was holding the NadoCast when he came down that mountain. It’s a good tool to raise awareness and attention and that’s why I’m putting it here.

Other AI modeling shows the bullseye further north, in KY, so yeah. Let’s not panic. Let’s prepare and monitor.

We will be on Twitter/X @NashSevereWx from here on out. Find us there! In case of warnings, we’ll be on Twitter/X and our YouTube Live channel.

Finally, read this if you’re new to tornadoes or need a refresher. And ICYMI yesterday, and you’re worried about staying in your home during these storms, read this (hint: site built homes and apartments are great shelters, but mobile and manufactured homes are not safe!). Got anxiety? You are not alone.

Prepared, not scared. We got this.