The morning runs of the HRRR predicted a steady, half-inch-plus afternoon rainfall. (Sorry to pick on you, HRRR. You weren’t the only terrible weather model today).
Example of the 8 AM HRRR run, predicting 1 PM:
Light, Off & On Rain
Rainy Day, & A Peek At The Weekend
Today – Showers & Thunderstorms – High 81
A line of showers and thunderstorms has formed just ahead of a weak cold front. This system dumped a heavy rain (several inches in some places) in Memphis. It’s moving our way.
Rain Tonight/Overnight
Today – Humid & Thunderstorms Late – High 90
As a cold front approaches Middle Tennessee from the northwest, warm & moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is pouring into Middle Tennessee, ratcheting up the humidity. According to the NAM modle, we will have dew points in the 70’s (translation: that’s humid).
Humidity & Rain On The Way
Wednesday – Humidity & Rain Return – Wake Up 70, High 90
We will be in the warm sector of an advancing cold front for much of the day on Wednesday. This will cause almost-oppressive humidity, with afternoon highs above the seasonal norm. A tightening pressure gradient will cause winds to gust up to 24 mph.
Coming Soon: Humidity & Rain
Today – Sunny (Eventually) & Dry – High 88
A north wind will keep the humidity at a tolerable level. Sooner or later, the cloud deck will shove off and permit the return of sunshine. When that happens, temps should break into the 80°s.
Week At A Glance
86 Monday
The clouds which ruled Sunday should shove off Monday, allowing temps to climb to 86. Humidity, however, will remain sane.
88 Tuesday
Tuesday will also be kind to us (no rain, high 88), but by Tuesday night, “return flow” begins.
Small Taste of Fall Today, Nice Helping By The Weekend
We got a little rain out of the weak cold front that came through yesterday.
Davidson County:
Williamson County:
Today – Cool & Dry – High 81
The cold front is now positioned south of the Tennessee border, allowing cooler, drier air to trickle in from the north.
When We Will Find What We’re Looking For
When will fall return? If not fall, a taste of fall? Keep reading.
At 6 PM, the cold front had already pushed through Davidson and most of Williamson Counties:
Current Temp:
Dew points are still hanging around 70, so the humidity hasn’t been eliminated, despite the nice breeze from the north.
Today’s Rain, Storm Chances
Last night, we were talking about storms in Missouri which were forming along a cold front. That cold front is still working its way towards us, and the question was whether those storms being pushed in our direction by the cold front would dissipate by the time they arrived here late this morning.
Everyone was watching me and I’m like, “I don’t know.”
The current radar displays (rather poorly) . . .
. . . an active weather system in Missouri. This is the enemy.
The latest run of the Euro model drops about a quarter inch of rain on us between 1 PM and 7 PM. Licensing agreements won’t allow us to post the image here.
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