The current radar displays (rather poorly) . . .
. . . an active weather system in Missouri. This is the enemy.
The latest run of the Euro model drops about a quarter inch of rain on us between 1 PM and 7 PM. Licensing agreements won’t allow us to post the image here.
The Hi-Res NAM model predicts scattered (off & on) showers and storms beginning around 1 PM . . .
. . . then forming a too-close-for-comfort line just SE of us around 4PM . . .
then marching SE and out of our way.
Note neither of the above models advertise any meaningful morning rain/storms.
The GFS model predicts rain will begin around 10 AM, then continue off and on through 7 PM:
It is discouraging to see the RAP, a short-range model, agree with the GFS. The RAP has rain off and on beginning at 10 AM:
The HRRR is not yet in range. It’ll be the first thing I check when I get up in the morning.
Ok, so you’re thinking “wow, that was pretty nerdy of you, but what do I do with all that information?”
First, take a deep breath, and ponder this.
Second, read what the pros, from our NWS-Nashville, wrote at 7:36 PM:
Convection means heavy rain and thunderstorms. They’re discussing our potential for rain in the morning. They think rain and storms in Missouri that are being pushed SE in our direction overnight by a cold front will be dissipating along the way.
Lightning is my concern with any showers/storms in the afternoon. That’s an easy way to clear out Live on the Green, LP Field, or whatever else you have going on.
Add to that some uncertainty from the local pros about what will happen after the front passes, and we have a mess of a forecast.
My plan is to wake up early in the morning to see whether this alleged late-morning rain system appears to be dissipating or not. Then I”ll have a look at the HRRR and read the wee-hour-NWS forecast discussion, drink a cup of coffee, and post an update here. I know you have stuff going on Saturday. I do too. Get some sleep, and we’ll see what happens.
Categories: Forecast Blogs