Forecast Blogs

Light, Off & On Rain

The morning runs of the HRRR predicted a steady, half-inch-plus afternoon rainfall. (Sorry to pick on you, HRRR. You weren’t the only terrible weather model today).

Example of the 8 AM HRRR run, predicting 1 PM:

It’s only fair to admit

Well, the logic was pretty good, but, yes, we feel turrible. We blame the HRRR. But, we admit, we feel shame.

What happened today? Well, the main line of rain disintegrated as it flew across Middle TN. Most of it fell in W TN (Memphis got hammered) then drifted SE, while the remaining moisture broke apart as it entered Middle TN. Once the afternoon got going, heavy rain and a few thunderstorms formed about 50+ miles to our E, speeding away from us. The wet and semi unstable atmospere produced modest and unimpressive showers. Forecast rainfall totals this morning (0.69″) were reduced by mid-morning (0.42″), then slashed by early afternoon (0.09″) when it was clear what was happening.

So, tonight, expect off & on light showers. I don’t think anything that hasn’t already been rained out will get rained out tonight.

Fog is expected tonight and overnight.

Friday – Humid & Scattered Showers – Wake Up 68, High 78

Although the cold front will quickly hack away at our temps, it will take another day to dry us out. Humidity will persist and allow scattered showers to come and go all day. That said, weather models are predicting very little rain for Friday.

Saturday – Cool & Drying Out – Wake Up 62, High 77

We begin to lose that pocket of moisture. We should dry out by the afternoon. The NAM Shows a drier airmass over the Music City by 1 PM.

18z dew point

(Green = Dry, Blue = Humid)

Additionally, the NWS believes our chance for scattered showers will end around 1 PM.  Be sure to enjoy this cool and dry afternoon.

Sunday is expected to be cool and dry, under sunny skies!


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Categories: Forecast Blogs