Last night, we were talking about storms in Missouri which were forming along a cold front. That cold front is still working its way towards us, and the question was whether those storms being pushed in our direction by the cold front would dissipate by the time they arrived here late this morning.
Well, the morning storms have dissipated. That’s good news. I think morning games/activities are in good shape.
But, the front is still coming. That front should be here around the middle of the day, during which time “scattered thunderstorms are expected to occur in a wide area across the frontal zone.” (NWS Morning Forecast Discussion).
So, if your question is: “will it rain on us today,” the answer is yes, it probably will. If your question is, “will it rain on me today,” the answer is “maybe it won’t, but it probably will.”
The HRRR thinks we’ll stay rain/storm free until 1 PM, when this happens:
The problem is all the moisture already in the air. We call it CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), the building blocks of storms. Combine peak daytime heating with a triggering mechanism like an arriving cold front, and any rain we do get can easily convert into torrential downpours and/or lightning. This is what the HRRR is betting on to occur around 1 PM.
The HRRR predicts this scattered rain and thunderstorm activity occurring off and on, in various intensities, until it finally tries to slide off of us around 5 PM (below):
Rain and storms will remain possible through the rest of the evening.
Don’t fixate on the timing of the HRRR. It will probably change. Remember the model motto: use for guidance, not gospel. But, that said, the HRRR (which runs hourly) has consistently produced showers and thunderstorms over us around 2 PM.
Those going to Live on the Green or the Ole Miss/Vandy game should pack a poncho and wear shoes that are comfortable if they get wet. Charge your phones. It’s possible there will just be a few passing showers, and things will be OK, but I think you should be prepared in case there is a thunderstorm and event organizers herd you into a place of relative shelter. I will be surprised (and happy) if I’m wrong.
(BTW, a tree, pavilion, or similar space does not protect you from lightning. Get inside something, preferably your car).
No warnings are ever posted this website. I’ll deliver updates today exclusively via Twitter @NashSevereWx.
(By the way, the forecast high Friday is 76! Next weekend looks awesome).