Today, the Storm Prediction Center outlooked us for severe weather for Monday:
Let’s first review Sunday’s weather.
Overnight/Sunday – Frost Advisory – Wake up 37°, High 71°
Frost Tonight; Hail, Severe Weather Concern Monday
Fall Weekend; Frost Advisory Early Tomorrow
Current Official Temp
Watch the cold front’s arrival on last night’s hourly observations:
Saturday – Much Colder, Sunny, Frost Advisory Overnight – High 62°
A west/northwest wind at 14-16 MPH will be blowing, tossing more cold air at us. Winds will die down after the sun goes down. You need a jacket today.
A Fall Weekend
The line of thunderstorms that moved through last night produced a handful of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (winds 58+ mph) in both Davidson & Williamson Counties.
We finally got some rain:
Davidson County:
Squall Line ETA 1 AM to 4 AM
As I write this at 8:15 PM, a robust squall line stretches from Austin TX to Indianapolis IN, prompting Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings along the way. Again, the below image is from 8:15 PM:
A Squall Line That May Try To Wake You Up
The 20z (that is nerd for 3 PM) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued!
For the period beginning now and extending through 7 AM Friday, the Storm Prediction Center’s opinion remains basically the same.
Squall Line Coming: Rain, Slight Risk of Damaging Winds
The lunchtime Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued, and through 7 AM Friday, little has changed:
As you can see, we remain included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather.
Slight Risk of Severe Weather Overnight
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued its severe weather outlook through 7 AM Friday:
As you can see, we are included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather. We’re in this category because the SPC thinks there is a 15% probability of a 58+ mph damaging wind gust within 25 miles of you, illustrated here on this map:
Here Comes The Cold Front
Hot Wednesday & Thursday — Rain & Storms Very Late Thursday Into Friday — Clearing Late Friday — Chilly Saturday
Today – Abnormally Hot – High 89°
Fresh off the 3rd driest September, also the 10th driest month ever (since records were being kept in 1871), today marks the first day of October. So how about 10° above the normal? The culprit is a ridge of high pressure sending in warm air on a southwesterly flow (“flow” means wind). The satellite water vapor image below shows the southwesterly flow (red arrow) and a trough of low pressure, coupled with a cold front (blue arrow) moving eastward.
Rain, Storms Late Thursday, Early Friday
Brief
WED: Upper 80s — 10°+ above normal — Increase in cloud cover — THU: Strong cold front gains strength — Rain, line of strong-severe storms late Thursday night — FRI: Showers and thunderstorms exit by Friday night — WEEKEND: Cooler weekend — NEXT WEEK: Another warmup.
Late Afternoon Update on Meh Storm Chances Overnight Thu
Today – Coffee & Clear – High 84°
It’s National Coffee Day. Earlier today, The Intern 2.0 said he’d attempt to drink 10 cups.
Results:
For the record, this is what happens to me when I drink too much coffee: