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Slight Risk of Severe Weather Overnight

This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued its severe weather outlook through 7 AM Friday:

Storm Prediction Center Oct 2, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-10-02 09.02.49

As you can see, we are included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather. We’re in this category because the SPC thinks there is a 15% probability of a 58+ mph damaging wind gust within 25 miles of you, illustrated here on this map:

Storm Prediction Center Oct 2, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-10-02 09.04.07

We are excluded from the SPC tornado probability and hail probability outlook.

This outlook will be updated again around lunchtime. We’ll update this website then.

OK, so when will the storms that’ll possibly produce 58+ mph damaging winds arrive? We think those will arrive toward the very end of the outlook period of 7 AM Friday morning.

The HRRR thinks we may see two lines late tonight and early Friday morning. See below:

Model Analyses and Guidance - Internet Explorer 2014-10-02 09.13.31

The Hi-Res NAM model has a 7 AM ETA for the #2 line. Other models have it coming in a few hours faster, others a few hours slower. We can safely infer our inclusion in the Day 1 Slight Risk means the SPC thinks our ETA is 6 AM to 7 AM.

Generally, we think the second line will have more severe potential, but the first line will have to be watched very closely tonight.

All that said, this is a low end severe weather concern, and is far from something to panic about. Still, this forecast may change throughout the day as we see the dynamics slide into place with the main (#2) squall line developing and cruising West to East through Arkansas and into Middle TN. Stay tuned.

Don’t forget about the rain. Unlike last Sunday (when our rainmaker was a moody, wandering, and otherwise irresponsible low pressure system), this is a robust system all but guaranteed to bring some rain. In fact, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has us down for over 1″ of rain.

We think the rain will clear out sometime Friday night, followed by a steady decline in temps (48° when you wake up Saturday morning) and a legitimate crash in dew points (which means say goodbye to any humidity). Saturday’s high is 63°. We’ll hit 71° Sunday, capping off a beautiful fall weekend.

Note that severe weather warnings are never posted to this website. This site is a supplement to @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Consult multiple reliable sources for weather information.

Categories: Uncategorized