As I write this at 8:15 PM, a robust squall line stretches from Austin TX to Indianapolis IN, prompting Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings along the way. Again, the below image is from 8:15 PM:
Middle Tennessee is not currently included in a severe weather Watch. This might change after midnight and into the wee hours of Friday morning.
Storms are pretty strong right now, but NWS expects them to gradually weaken as they march east toward us. Weather models have squall line weakening as it crosses the Tennessee River and approaches Davidson & Williamson Counties.
Timing: as I tweeted earlier, weather models are bringing the squall line to us around 2 AM and 4 AM. This matches the NWS ETA graphic:
All that said, the severe weather risk is not zero. The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t think we will see 1″ hail, but they have included us within a 15% probability of damaging wind happening within 25 miles of us, shown here:
And, for the first time today, SPC has included us in a 2% probability of a tornado happening within 25 miles of us:
Other than 0%, this is the lowest possible tornado probability SPC issues.
So, be sure your weather radio has batteries, and/or get you a wake-me-up app (see the scrolling link for one we like), and get some sleep.
This will be the last time we will update this website before the storms arrive. We’ll shift exclusively to Twitter @NashSevereWx from here on out. Remember, we never post warnings to this website. We urge you to consult multiple reliable sources of weather information, including local TV (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC).