Squall Line Coming: Rain, Slight Risk of Damaging Winds

The lunchtime Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather outlook has been issued, and through 7 AM Friday, little has changed:

As you can see, we remain included in the “Slight” Risk for severe weather.

The SPC still has us in its 15% probability of a 58+ mph damaging wind gust within 25 miles of you, as shown here on this map:

We remain excluded from the SPC tornado and hail probability outlooks.  However, the “2% probability” for tornadoes extends to western portions of Middle Tennessee:

This outlook will be updated again this afternoon. We’ll update this website then.

Right now, we see a weak line of showers and storms moving NE from north Mississippi and SW TN:

We don’t think these will be severe, and they may pass harmlessly to our west.

Right now, we think the main squall line of storms with its corresponding marginal severe weather potential will arrive along I-65 some time before 7 AM.

The HRRR has the line arriving in the middle of the night. Here it is at 1 AM Friday:

We think this line will arrive later in the morning, closer to sunrise. This is supported by the RAP and NAM4km models.

The NWS has this timing graphic:

This remains a low end severe weather concern, and is far from something to

panic about. Just stay informed.

Don’t forget about the rain. We still expect about/above 1″ from this system.

Rain should clear out sometime after noon tomorrow, followed by a steady drop in temps: down to 48° when you wake up Saturday morning. Saturday’s high is 63° with a stiff NW wind. We’ll hit 71° Sunday, capping off a beautiful fall weekend.

Severe weather warnings are never posted to this website. This site is a supplement to @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Consult multiple reliable sources for weather information.