The next 48 hours will include much of the same, bitter cold that has invaded the central and eastern U.S.
Warm air begins to advect (propagate) into southern and middle Tennessee during the day on Sunday. The center of high pressure that was entrenched over-top of us keeping our temperatures down will slide east towards the Appalachians, and relatively warmer air will arrive to replace the chill.
The day has finally come that we have been talking about for quite some time now, our first dose of winter-like weather.
Keep in mind over the next couple of days, we will see some calm winds of about 5-10 mph. While this doesn’t seem like much, this wind will add in wind chill. Expect for it to feel even colder than those high temperatures (the wind chill isn’t forecast to go above 32° tomorrow and this is what it is going to feel like).
Afternoon continues to be pleasant with temps reaching the mid 40s.
A cold front is set to pass through tonight and behind it, very very cold temperatures (more on the meh rain/snow chances later). To end the work week, we will finally be seeing those winter-like temperatures. We could even drop into the teens for the first time this year on Friday night.
A dividing line between relatively warmer air and very cold polar air is expected to reach middle Tennessee later this evening. Behind this cold front, temperatures will fall below freezing overnight.
GFS 850mb Temperatures Loop
Over the course of the next few days, some of the coldest air of the season will take control, per NWS Nashville:
Friday and Saturday mornings we are looking at the coldest temperatures thus far this meteorological winter.
Have a look at this temperature fall-out from Thursday through the first half of the weekend:
Needless to say, your winter wardrobe will be out in full force later this week.
There’s no reason to be very excited about this, but the first flakes of the winter are always of interest.
Another wave of energy will eject out of the mid south late Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing enough moisture to send a few showers our way. This event will be a “sleeper”, or one that occurs overnight, into early Thursday. At times a few snowflakes could mix in with the rain, but as expected, no accumulation is even remotely possible.
NWS Nashville:
...we could see a chance for light rain here in Middle Tennessee after midnight possibly mixing with a flake or two of snow over northern areas of the Mid State along the higher elevations...
Rain has stayed clear of us so far today, but into tonight, we will begin to see those showers pushing into our area.
We could begin to see spotty showers by this afternoon, but we think the majority will hold off until the early evening hours.
HRRR model illustrates a little light rain it thinks will come in later tonight:
That’s not much. We agree.
Light winds and plenty of moisture will cause fog to form in spots, in all the usual places.
“Blerg” means it’s under 40° and raining, not snowing. This is not an official weather definition. We made it up.
Today is “almost” a blerg because the rain is mostly south and east of us, where it is expected to remain most of the day. Don’t be surprised if you get a shower/sprinkle or two, but don’t expect any real rain during the day.
A chilly rain, at that.
If you’re planning on a night out, a rain jacket, boots, and/or an umbrella would all be helpful.
How about four more days of it?
Sunday will start as a continuation of Saturday with showers encompassing most of the middle state.
High pressure remains well in control as we head into the evening hours tonight.
Through the night, expect for skies to begin to become cloudier. By tomorrow, skies will be mostly cloudy and once we reach tomorrow afternoon, we will become fair game for showers.
GFS 12z Run – Dry Conditions for next 36 hours
Through Saturday, high pressure will remain entrenched over the area, with westerly winds swinging around the north side of its center.
This brings us cooler and drier air to the two-county region through Friday. Then, changes start back up.
Waking up on Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s accompanied by some showers. This will be a cold rain, and if you’re traveling towards the Cumberland area, don’t be surprised to see a few snowflakes on the northern side of the plateau in the morning.
GFS 12z Run – Rain Returning Early Sunday
Several pieces of energy (shortwaves) will work their way across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valley from Sunday through mid-week. There will be breaks in the rain activity here and there, one of these times likely being Monday morning. However, expect off and on rain showers starting Sunday morning, rinsing and repeating through the work week.
Rain totals through Tuesday morning could range from 1-2″:
Wednesday PM-Thursday AM: we are watching for a strong cold front to make its way here. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with this system as a robust low pressure system develops over the Rockies and travels through the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
NWS Nashville on mid-week storm:
Another strong Midwest trough will move in Thursday next week, and again models are in pretty good agreement on magnitude but slightly off on timing. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning looks to be the consensus on timing, so have high chance pops in for that timeframe. The upper trough also brings a very strong cold front to the region, so if some precip lingers behind the front, flurries or light snow showers will be possible for the mid state Thursday morning into the early afternoon. With highs only in the low 40s Thursday, it looks like we will get a small taste of winter at the end of the forecast.
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