Uncomfortable dewpoints + upper 90°s temps will drive the heat index over 100° starting today, continuing at least through the weekend.
Temps “drop” Monday, but still very humid.
The Wattery returns next week.
Not much happening next several days other than it’s gonna be hot.
Dewpoints in the upper 60°s today through the weekend will be … uncomfortable. Combine that with near 100° temps and we’ll see the Heat Index approach 105°. At 105°+ NWS issues a Heat Advisory.
Some morning showers moved through this morning and left as quick as they came.
HRRR model keeps us quiet through the evening, but cannot totally rule out a few Wattery winners this afternoon. Upper 90’s + dewpoints in the low 70’s will give us a heat index in the 105°-109° range, reason for the Heat Advisory. Counties just to our west are under an Excessive Heat Warning. We’ll pass. If you have to be outside today, give your body some breaks. Heat exhaustion/stroke is no joke and it will creep up on you.
July was kind enough to give us one day below 90°. It looks like there is a good possibility we finish July with all but one day (yesterday) 90°+.
Today will be the “coolest” day of the foreseeable future. High should reach 90°, paired with dewpoints in the low 70’s will give us a heat index that approaches 100°.
Our streak of 28 consecutive days of reaching the 90’s looks to stop at 28. Our high temp looks to only make it to 85° today. It was a good run, some may say a great run. But all good, or bad things must come to an end. 28 days is the 5th longest streak on record. Not as cool of a streak as Cal Ripken Jr.’s or Joey Chestnut. The streak really hasn’t been cool at all, it’s just been hot.
Dry air is prohibiting the rain from Kentucky from moving into our area. Would not be surprised if a shower squeaked by, but won’t be anything of major consequence.
Latest HRRR model (below) runs think the rain/storms hold off until after a Nashville SC win. But models aren’t always right. Prepare and plan for the unexpected.
Previously mentioned showers coming in from Kentucky look weak. If they do make it here this afternoon, they would just be some very light showers. No need to alter any plans. No severe weather worries with these. HRRR model gives its’ take below.
Below I posted the MaybeWrong HRRR model. It thinks light showers descend from KY beginning midnight tonight and hit or miss sprinkle you until around Saturday afternoon. Would not alter plans. Rainfall unevenly spread and very light. No storm concerns.
Rain and Storm chances return Sunday afternoon. Until then, sticky-uncomfortable humidity (dewpoints in the 60°s) with typical mid-July temps:
Humidity jumps up Sunday afternoon when The Wattery will resume. Place your bets on getting an isolated, scattered shower or thunderstorm overhead each afternoon Sunday through at least Weds. Lightning the hazard, not concerned about tornadoes.
Yesterday’s forecast had wins (HRRR timing on Will Co storms, damaging straight line wind threat) and losses (SPC did not mention hail yet Will Co saw 1″ hail then that storm blew into Marshall Co and dropped 4″ hail on Chapel Hill).
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