Happy Friday!! After storms threatened us yesterday, the weather story for this week is a return of the sun. Clouds will move across our area today keeping the sun by and large hidden. The temp this afternoon with get up to around 55º and wind will keep gusting to around 20mph. High pressure will be working its way in from the west and that will make the next 4-5 days nearly cloud free.
As we’ve been saying for several days, severe storms require certain ingredients. Most of them were in place, but we were lacking enough cold air aloft to get good updrafts going.
Weather balloon data is back! Shows lapse rates too low for severe weather here. Temps aren’t cold enough aloft to cause clouds to rise/lift fast enough to get robust vertical motion needed to create a storm capable of producing a rapidly rotating updraft (aka tornado).
We are expecting showers and thunderstorms today as a strong storm system moves through the Upper Plains and Great Lakes region. The system will drag a cold front across our area today bringing storms, some of which could be severe.
Today will be another warm day with morning lows around 61°, but highs warming to around 73°. Southerly winds could gust even higher than today as a strong system approaches from the west. As far as storms go, let’s start general and work toward specifics.
Dry today. Tonight more clouds arrive and we resume talking rain.
The NAM3 model thinks light rain is possible at times tonight and again before sunrise Wednesday:
HRRR model thinks no rain tonight, but maybe a light shower before sunrise Wednesday morning:
Last night’s forecast was “no rain until Thursday!”
Uhhhh. Then this morning happened.
Light rain this morning surprised me. Rain was supposed to pass completely south of us. Most of it did. But we still got some this morning. At 5:56 AM NWS-Nashville noted approaching rain in West Tennessee was not reaching the ground thanks to a low level Dry Air Monster.
Dry days ahead!
Pretty warm, too.
Rain and storms may start late Wednesday night/wee hours Thursday morning.
South winds will be strong. The Euro model thinks winds will gust over 40 MPH. Storm strength will depend on instability and dewpoint levels. No two storm events are the same, but this looks pretty similar to what we saw yesterday/Saturday — plenty of wind energy, questionable instability. As usual, considerable uncertainty, especially this far away.
Last night’s storm reports weren’t from storms but from the Wind Advisory. “Non thunderstorm-winds,” they call it.
Rain reached 2″+ in spots yesterday. Creeks and streams rose quickly and fell not as quickly. A few rivers reached pre-flood “action stage.” For more on that, this.
The rain is over. Storms have moved on to our east, allowing for our the tornado watch including Davidson and Williamson counties to be cancelled. We remain under a wind advisory until 9PM.
Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, are expected for another hour or so, becoming calm by midnight.
Severe weather requires the right ingredients coming together at the right time. Severe weather ingredients may come together this afternoon and/or early tonight.
Two waves of storms, both with severe potential.
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