Scattered Showers on the 4th, Rain Chances Remain through the Weekend

Independence Day

Unfortunately, we are looking at more possible showers and storms today.

Here’s the HRRR model:

The NAM3 shows much less development. Don’t count on this. We can hope for the NAM3, but to be on the safe side, I’d prepare for the HRRR today.

Any pop-up showers could hinder outdoor grilling this afternoon, though they look to taper off by nighttime. If anything, firework shows could be delayed, but hopefully not cancelled.

Here’s what NWS-Nashville says (quick translation below):

“We should see thunderstorms develop on a similar timeline as yesterday, with scattered storms late in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon hours. Instability (MUCAPE values near 3000 j/kg) will be high enough for storms to become tall and produce small hail, gusty winds and lightning, however, shear values will continue to be very low, which will inhibit organization and lead to the typical summertime pulse storms that we`ve been seeing the last few days. PWATS remain higher than normal for this time of the year, around 1.9 to 2 inches and storm motion will be fairly slow again today, so some heavy downpours could cause ponding on roadways and quick rises and falls in flashy creeks. While many places could see storms this afternoon, it shouldn`t rain all day at any one place, so hopefully the storms don`t do much more than delay holiday celebrations.

Quick translation: scattered pop-up storms beginning this afternoon, nothing severe expected (though watch for small hail, gusty winds, and lightning), possible ponding from lots of moisture and slower storms.

Please stay weather aware today, especially if you will be outdoors, and have a plan B or somewhere to take shelter in case you find yourself in one of these showers/storms.

When thunder roars, go indoors.

Aside from rain/storm chances, today will reach a high of 91° with heat index values reaching as high as 98°. Stay hydrated, find some accessible shade if outside, and take breaks.

Oh, and…

Rest of the Week

There aren’t many changes in the forecast since yesterday.

Afternoon/early evening storms are still possible over the next few days due to diurnal heating, though we still aren’t too concerned with severe storms. We will monitor.

A second snippet from NWS-Nashville’s morning discussion:

“We won`t see much change in the forecast between today and tomorrow other than the introduction of a weak shortwave that could encourage slightly more thunderstorms development during the afternoon on Friday through Saturday evening.

Heat index values? No relief. These will still reach values in the upper-90s and could peak to 100° (I’m looking at you, Sunday).

Dewpoint temperatures? Lower to mid-70s.

Stay weather aware today, stay cool (and hydrated), and have a safe and happy 4th!

Keep checking back for updates!