We’re seeing some great weather today as blue skies abound. We’ll get to 92º without a cloud in the sky. It’s possibly the last 90º day as these blue skies yield to rain when a cold front approaches.
Saturday’s high is 90°, two degrees shy of the October 5 record from 2018. Humidity will increase through the day.
Kinda summery Saturday night ahead of our first real rain event in weeks. Few models even want to pop off a few showers, IDK, maybe that’ll happen but nah. Will check this again in the AM but I’m unimpressed.
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Thursday: hot and dry… again. How hot? Well, we’ve already broken the 116 year old record for today, which was 92°. This graphic from the pre-dawn hours gave us a forecast high of 97°. NWS is now thinking 99° at BNA with even the possibility of….well, you know…
Dewpoints will be in the lower-60s. Not bad but still a little humid.
We finally drop below 90° Friday, though a ridge returns Saturday bringing us back into the 90s. Good news?
“However, that should be the last day of afternoon high temps 90 or above for the considerable future.” @NWS-Nashville
Expect to hit into the upper 90°s for our high today. Dew points in the low to mid 60°s.
No rain chances until late weekend.
NWS-Nashville has more info:
Yesterday, new record high temps for Oct itself were established at the Nashville International Airport: 98 degrees and at the Crossville Airport: 91 degrees. Like I have done the last couple of mornings, broke out a climate section below with the “hot temp specifics”. Along with record high temps for a couple more days, the possiblity also of recored warmest low temp values being set tonight for certain locations across mid state region. Please, like previous days, continue heat safety precautions thru at least thru Thu afternoon, especially if you have to work or be outside for any extended periods of time. For additional information concerning NWS heat safety tips and resources, visit: weather.gov/safety/heat.
The high temperature at Nashville so far is 97°. This breaks the record high for October by 3°. The high temperature at Crossville so far is 91°. The previous record for October was 86°, set multiple times.
Highs in the mid to upper
90s
High temps will reach 96° Sunday (record high is 98° set back in 1953). Heat index 98°. Touch of humidity (not oppressive).
What else is new?
The HRRR model throws us widely scattered, brief showers, but I wouldn’t count on them.
This model has often (recently) predicted these showers in this high-pressure weather pattern. Rarely happens tho.
“A strong upper level high pressure system will keep record-setting heat going through midweek, especially high temperatures. Afternoon heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100…” @NWS-Nashville
You know how it’s the last weekend of September? Well, it feels like the second weekend of July.
Editor’s Note:
Highs today will approach the mid 90°s with dewpoints in the mid 60°s.
Rain chances are slim. The highlight of the ongoing state-wide drought has returned. The high pressure “cooker” is back.
I’m not happy about this, I’m sure many agree.
NWS-Nashville has something to say:
After record setting heat yesterday, this morning`s low temps will be around 15 degrees or more above normal and possibly record setting for warm overnight lows. Ugh. The main wx feature for this hot forecast period will be a strong upper level high setting up shop directly over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Guidance numbers continue to be much too low just like we saw during the last heatwave. NBM (National Blend of Models) looks best, but even those values may not be warm enough at times. Record highs are likely most days through at least Wednesday.
Same NWS-Nashville, same.
Looks like we have a few more days to deal with the summer.
The high pressure system will remain throughout the weekend. That means hot and humid conditions that are likely to break records.
So Sunday will be about the same.
We could very well see heat index values into the low 100°s.
So be careful out there and stay hydrated.
As we move into the beginning of the week, the heat remains, with highs in the upper 90°s.
Still no rain in sight. Here’s the drought monitor for the state:
Remember, check back for updates as they come. Follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx!
There are plenty of chances this week for some high temperature records to be broken with all forecasted highs in the mid 90s. Minimal rain chances through the week, not really any relief in sight. A strong upper level ridge boosts our temperatures mid week up to near 96°, making it feel like a July afternoon. The all-time record high for October, 94°, has a good chance of being snapped later on this week.
The NWS-Nashville is hinting at a possible late week cold front that could bring us some relief from this madness, but we will have to wait and see, as that is still multiple days out.
For this afternoon, we’ll be up to 94° as hot and humid air will stick with us in Middle Tennessee, possibly bringing a couple late afternoon showers. Here’s the latest HRRR, showing the majority of us staying dry:
Even if some areas do see rain this afternoon, it’s not going to put much of a dent in this summer-like weather. Like I said, it’s going to be humid, making it feel even more miserable outside, with dewpoint values in the upper 60s. It’s going to be gross out there you all, no way else to put it.
We’re still under a “Moderate Drought” for most of Middle Tennessee, because if you haven’t noticed, it hasn’t really rained.
Fire danger concerns will continue through this week as this drought worsens before it gets any better.
Be on the lookout for fall…it’s out there somewhere.
Check back for more updates!
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