Initial, big snowflakes now falling early this evening will melt on above-freezing surfaces. Temps are supercold and below-freezing above 3,000 feet. Temps are above-freezing below 3,000 feet. Flakes lack the time to change back to sleet or rain by the time they hit the earth. Splat. Melt.
We have a lot to follow in this forecast. Let’s start with this afternoon and early evening. We’re expecting rain to being this afternoon, and a rumble of thunder isn’t out of the question. We’ve recently been given a general thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (below).
It’ll probably rain a little before midnight tonight, no big deal.
Models indicate snow Friday night lasting off and on overnight into Saturday morning.
Rain is expected to change to snow Friday night between 9 PM and midnight:
Sunny skies and pleasant during the day. Southerly winds could gust upwards of 25 mph.
That’s all ahead of an approaching front tonight.
HRRR Model shows a weak band of showers moving through Thursday Evening into the overnight hours.
It’s noticeably warmer today…same for tomorrow with sunny skies sticking around. Light south winds today should become more gusty Thursday ahead of our next system.
An incoming front may bring a spotty shower late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
(Sunday’s forecast for Monday’s snow wasn’t horrible, wasn’t great. Looked like SE Will Co could get clipped and that’s what happened. The “place” forecast was good, the “amount” forecast was not. All the models “missed” this event, a reminder that weather models are not forecasts. Forecasts are not truth. Future prediction is hard. The arrogant forecast will be humbled. –David.)
It has been a tale of two counties this morning
Parts of Williamson County have picked up an inch…
Even nearing 2 inches near Thompson Station..
Those in Davidson County haven’t been as lucky
Moisture that has infiltrated Williamson has been losing the battle with the dry air north of I-40 in Davidson County.
Confidence is “low to medium” (NWS-Nashville) in forecast accuracy for snow Monday.
Variables include:
NWS-Nashville make no changes to its snow total forecast. Under a half inch, which includes us getting nothing. Most of those north of I-40 get shut out:
Snow will pile up across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi today and tonight.
Monday this system will turn into Tennessee and weaken.
We may get no local snow. The best snow chances are between us and Chattanooga.
Here’s a quick rundown of how today’s gonna go:
Sunday will be a little sunnier, and a little warmer.
Unfortunately, they’re not looking great right now.
Here’s what the National Weather Service has to say about this system:
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