Lunchtime rain is moving out. Should be clearing this afternoon.
Strong/Severe Storm Potential Wednesday
This will all depend on two things: morning rain and where a high pressure is:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Nashville and Will Co under a 5% chance of seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a point. The southwestern half of Williamson County is under a 15% probability, but I would not pay too much attention to that — the risk isn’t 10% higher in Franklin vs Brentwood, or the rest of our area.
All forms modes of severe weather are still possible in our area. Gusty winds are the main threat at the moment.
The only forecast confidence is that we will see a pretty good soaking Wednesday. Anywhere from 1.25″ to 1.5″ of rain is expected.
Our severe weather chances depend on whether a warm front will lift out of AL/MS and pass north of us, putting us inside the warm side. If it does, the door is open to severe weather. If it does not, severe weather is unlikely if not impossible. Current model runs suggest the warm front probably will not make it north of us, which is good news. But the models may be wrong, and as you’ll see below, it’s a close call.
Even if the warm front does come through, models suggest we’ll see rain Wednesday morning. That would be great. Morning rain would use up available instability, making severe weather less likely later in the day.
The 12z run of the NAM — which usually overstates how bad severe weather will actually be (but we are using it because it’s a higher res model finally somewhat in range) — draws a sharp line between the higher storm-making values to our west, and a more stable and less concerning area where we are:
You’ll notice that area is roughly along the 15% and 5% area drawn by SPC. So, yeah, this is a pretty close call, but for now we are on the good side of things. I would not want to be MS or AL on Wednesday. We will update this forecast here, tonight, as new information arrives.
Don’t let the colors and percentages scare you. Make sure you have your severe weather plan in place in case something does happen. Tuesday is looking like the perfect day to get everything in order. This probably won’t be the only day this season with severe weather potential. April is usually our most active month.
Some moisture could linger into Thursday, giving us the chance of some showers. But the weekend appears quiet.
Categories: Forecast Blogs