It’s peak severe weather season right now and we are super quiet. Medium and long range model data suggests (but doesn’t promise) we’ll stay quiet until end of April/early May.
Today:
Few Light Showers, Otherwise Quiet Week Ahead.
Looking Good, Nashville!
It’s a “Hold Onto Your Hat” Kind of Day
Winds may gust up to 30 mph this afternoon.
This is what we like to see on satellite–a whole lotta nothing:
Some clouds sitting to our north associated with a low pressure system won’t impede our sunshine today.
Hit-or-Miss Showers This Afternoon, Cooler and Dryer Next Week.
Storms last night weren’t as strong as we thought they could’ve been… be thankful.
Areas to our south weren’t as lucky…
Back to Tennessee
Rain that we experienced overnight and this morning has shifted east for the most part.
Possible Strong Storms Tonight/Saturday
Will they be severe? Will they cause damage? It’s doubtful… But let’s dive in
HRRR MODEL The Storm Prediction Center has put us under a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 out of 5) for late tonight through early Saturday.
Showers/Storms Friday and Saturday, Clearing Out Sunday and Monday.
Morning rain has moved east. Clouds remain as another round of storms is expected to develop, mostly east of us. HRRR model below thinks it will be mostly a Plateau issue.
We should be finished with any showers by 2pm.
Rain/Maybe Storms Tonight, and More Rain for the Weekend
Rain Beginning Overnight
Wednesday should remain warm and dry until this evening. Rain will move into Middle Tennessee tonight.
Timing
The HRRR shows rain approaching both counties just before midnight. Rain should last through the overnight hours and clear by the morning.
Rain (Maybe Storms) Late Wednesday, More Rain Possible Saturday
Perfect spring weather persists Tuesday.
Next Weather Maker: Late Wednesday
Most of the day Wednesday should be dry. The bulk of the activity will come during the overnight hours Wednesday Night -early Thursday Morning
HRRR Model shows a weakening line of showers moving entering our western communities around midnight Wednesday night, with most of the precip ending before sunrise Thursday.
Rain Returns Late Wednesday
Nothing much to talk about today and Tuesday – plenty of sun and warmer temps.
Next Rain Event
We could see a couple showers Wednesday afternoon, but the main event will come through late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Next Rain Event Late Wednesday – Thursday.
Happy Easter!
Sunshine and a warmup through the mid-week.
Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Wednesday night and continues Thursday.
The approaching storm system presents some severe risk for Arkansas and West Tennessee. Severe is unlikely for us. The system appears to weaken a bit and become just a rain event with low-powered thunderstorms by the time it gets here. ETA most likely very late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Timing remains iffy, though, because hi-res models are not yet in range.
The Warm-up Begins, Next Rain Event: Mid-Week (Storms?)
Was this the last freezing morning of the szn?
Place your bets. We say “probably” because it’s difficult for the atmosphere to get freezing air this far south, this time of the year, but not impossible. For now, we see no chance of a freezing morning for the next 7-10 days.
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