We will likely see two round of rain/storms Wednesday.
The first round will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
This first round will race ahead of the warm front trailing behind it, so while gusty winds are possible, tornadoes are not expected to accompany this activity.
Lunchtime rain is moving out. Should be clearing this afternoon.
This will all depend on two things: morning rain and where a high pressure is:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Nashville and Will Co under a 5% chance of seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a point. The southwestern half of Williamson County is under a 15% probability, but I would not pay too much attention to that — the risk isn’t 10% higher in Franklin vs Brentwood, or the rest of our area.
Substantial wind shear will be in place as a line of storms approaches Monday morning. ETA late morning/lunch. But instability should be near zero, reducing if not eliminating most/all severe storm concerns. Winds may still be strong (40 MPH or so) — and we cannot totally rule out a severe wind event — but there is no reason for a hail or tornado concern Monday.
Nothing happening until Thursday, when rain sets up north of us.
Will it get here? Maybe not. Thursday showers will mainly stay north of I-40. They may not even make it into Davidson County.
But Friday and Friday night that stationary rainmaking boundary should sag south and send a few off and on, scattered, and unconcerning showers into to our area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible, but just thunder and lightning, nothing severe.
