Future prediction is hard.
This week we’re at our outdoorsiest…during what’s statistically the wettest week of the year, mid-May.
Will it rain [insert location, date, time] because I have [plants to water, graduation ceremony, a game, going out with friends and thinking about a white top, it’s field day, etc] and I have to decide what to do?
Heat and humidity continue today. The ridge of high pressure responsible for the sauna is still in place, but as we move into the afternoon, it’s going to begin breaking down. Until then, our temps are still going to flirt with record breaking highs; the record high in Nashville on this day is 91, set back in 1962. We’re forecast to hit 91 today. Dewpoints are going to hang around the upper 60’s all day, so it’ll be another sweaty one.
Our short streak of 90 degree days continues today: 92º. If we get there, it will tie the May 14 record set in 1881.
Humidity remains high with dew points be in the mid-to-upper 60s. Keep an eye on the little ones — their bodies don’t regulate heat well, and they’re not yet acclimated to this summertime airmass.
Humidity will increase again Monday, somewhere between sticky and uncomfortable.
Low 90s temps with dewpoints in the mid 60s will make it feel like mid 90 temps in the heat of the afternoon.
From the National Weather Service:
Yesterday, for the first time in 2018, BNA hit 90. This was early: on average, we hit 90 on May 29. Look for highs today of 91, Monday 93, and Tuesday 92.
For us, yesterday’s heat was a “dry heat,” with dew points at or below 60. Dew points (the humidity) will rise today, tomorrow, and Tuesday, into “extra deodorant swipe needed” and “your hair will frizz” levels.
The strong ridge of high pressure has really settled in over our area enhancing a southerly flow and keeping cloud-cover low. These conditions are going to let our temps to creep upwards close to 90. We are on a direct course to come close to 90 degrees today.
Below is one of the runs from this morning’s HRRR model. It shows a few scattered showers this morning followed by a clearing in the late morning hours.
I doubt rain happens today. As I write, the satellite is clean. The model is probably wrong.
The HRRR and NAM 3km models are showing some agreement today as they spell out spotty showers. An upper-level shortwave trough will be influencing our weather for parts of the day today.
The humid, summer-like conditions continue for our area.
Expect temps to crawl into the upper 80s with dew points settled into the low 60s. It’s going to be a hot day!
It’s getting humid. We will be muggy for the foreseeable future as dew points get into the low 60s.
It’s time to dust off the trusty dew point interpreter, updated for 2018:
“Unsettled” weather has arrived, aka summer in Middle Tennessee.
A loop of current satellite imagery shows the lack of clouds over our area. For today, our weather is being heavily influenced by a ridge of clear, dry weather to our west. Expect today to be warm but dry.
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