This morning, NWS wrote:
A slight veering of the surface winds to more southerly today may allow slightly higher dewpoints to advect into the region which could push heat index values into the 100° to 105° range particularly across the Nashville to Clarksville corridor.
The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory again today for areas west of Nashville. That means the heat index is supposed to be in the range of 103º to 105º. We shouldn’t get that hot here, but it’ll be close. Heat indices will be near 100º today in Nashville.
One week ago: “I sure wish it would rain. It never rains. We need rain really bad. My garden is dying. When is it going to rain?”
Today: “Enough rain already. Everything is flooded. Make it go away. Please stop. STAAAAAHHHHHP!”
A “watch” means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms.
Note the probabilities of various hazards for the entire watch area:
Nashville is not included in this watch. Williamson County is included. It appears the boundary where storms are setting up is going to cut through Williamson Co., which is why they drew the area where they did.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us within a Marginal risk for Thursday. They think there is a 5% chance of severe storms occurring within 25 miles of you.
Threats are strong winds and heavy rainfall if a storm pops up over you.
*Outdoor plans at First Tennessee Park, Ascend or somewhere else? Keep your radar handy and check in frequently. Could have some storms around. See below.
It’s going to be hot and steamy today. The high will reach into the low 90s with the dewpoints staying in the low 70s.
We dodged storms last night. They stayed mostly in Kentucky, although there were severe thunderstorm warnings in the counties to our north and northeast. One of them had supercell structure, like a spaceship:
Dewpoints will be in the low 70s all week.
On cloudy days, expect highs in the low 90s. Sunnier days, expect mid 90s.
We have some storms moving into middle Tennessee. These will hang around late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Both our HRRR and NAM 3-km models are in disagreement – lending to uncertainty for tomorrow.
After some strong, damaging storms to our south today, HRRR suggests we are done with the rain for tonight. More storms expected tomorrow.
The typical summertime status quo remains intact for this weekend. Storms look like they could be severe again on Sunday as the atmosphere recharges following possible rain/storms Saturday night. Highs will be in the upper 80s with the muggy-meter in the uncomfortable range.
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