It’s going to rain hard on Easter, but probably not raining all day. The flash flood threat is mostly for those to our SE, but some models deliver us heavy rain so be alert.
Severe weather? I’m glad you asked.
Easter Morning, Afternoon, & Night: Social Media Threats, Risks, Timing, & Uncertainties
Best Case, Worst Case, What We Think, & What We Know about Easter Sunday Heavy Rain and Severe Storms.
Middle Tennessee is under an enhanced risk of severe storms on Sunday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.
NWS-Nashville
I’m going to trust you. If you’re going to skim this, don’t read it at all because you’ll miss important details.
Update on Significant Severe Storm & Heavy Rainfall Concerns Easter Sunday
Friday and Saturday
Two really nice spring days today and Saturday. Cold Saturday morning though.
We’ll warm up considerably on Saturday with a slight chance of showers before midnight.
Sunday Severe Weather Storm Chances
As always, but especially Sunday . . .
Nice End of the Week, Easter Sunday Rainout
Thursday: Sunny, high of 65°, breezy.
Friday: Down to 38° early AM. Then copy and paste the rest of Thursday, but a high of 59°.
Saturday: Cold start to the morning with highs in the mid to upper-30s. Some could possibly wake up to some patchy frost if it gets cold enough. Sunny, high of 68°.
Bedtime, Cooler Starting Tomorrow, Rainy (Stormy?) Easter Sunday.
Rest of Tonight Looks Quiet
Tonight’s storm used just about all the storm fuel, leaving nothing behind to power a second line coming in later. We think the second line will be weak. Maybe some lightning, but mostly just rain. Davidson County’s Tornado Watch has been cancelled. Will Co’s Tornado Watch will probably be cancelled before 2 AM.
Tornado Watch until 2 AM.
Video Update 857 PM
Tornado Watch Details
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for Davidson and Williamson Counties until 2 AM.
The Watch reflects concern a line of storms, ETA between 11 PM and 2 AM, will produce tornadoes. Most models are trending toward a midnight to 1 AM ETA, but you should remain alert for warnings and ETA changes until this line passes. Storms may arrive early. Storms will form a line and come in from the northwest.
Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and an Isolated Tornado Possible Late Tonight
Our severe weather risk has been upgraded and could very well be upgraded again later today by the Storm Prediction Center. We are looking at a damaging wind and large hail event for tonight through the early morning hours. A tornado is less likely, but possible.
A Couple Sprinkles Today, Severe Threat Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning
A Few Showers For The Remainder Of Tuesday
We’ve got a few spotty showers making their way across Middle Tennessee this morning and into the afternoon. Some of us may see some wet pavement in a few spots, but barely registering in any rain buckets.
Severe Thunderstorm Risks Tuesday (meh) & Wednesday (/puts reading glasses on/).
Storms are more likely Wednesday, less likely Tuesday.
Tuesday’s “Meh” Storm Risk
No/few storms Tuesday thru 7 PM per HRRR model:
Models are quiet Tuesday night. Storms show up on the NAM3 model around sunrise Wednesday morning but those look weak.
Rain, Maybe Storms, Tuesday, & Are We Done Freezing?
Comfortable Sunday & Monday
Mostly sunny, highs Sunday (today) 77°, and 79° Monday.
Humidity will rise each day this week. Dewpoints in the low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain, Potential Storms Return Tuesday
Models believe it’ll rain Tuesday.
A specific ETA is unknown because although models agree it’ll rain, they aren’t sure when. Rain could begin as early as Tuesday morning or as late as Tuesday afternoon, and should clear out by Wednesday morning. The rain should come in short waves with no expected rainouts, but, on Tuesday night . . .
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