If you’re not a fan of the cold temps and have gotten used to a short-sleeves style winter, by tomorrow, you’ll be back to the summer wardrobe.
Southerly winds will begin overnight tonight. However, low temperatures tomorrow morning will still be below freezing. It won’t be until the afternoon on Friday that we feel the effects of southerly flow.
Timing:
Generally speaking, we could start to see showers as early as sunrise. Models have continued to trend at a morning arrival for the “severe” stuff.
NAM 4 (from 9 PM tonight through 9 PM Tuesday night) thinks tomorrow the heavier rain will pass through in the AM, with some straggling showers through the rest of the day.
Not tonight, not tomorrow, but Monday and Tuesday will be quite interesting. Highs in the 50s will prosper this weekend with a mix of sun and clouds, especially Sunday. Winds are switching from easterly to southerly, and once this happens, temps will start to become noticeably warmer.
Update: A slow warm up through the weekend begins tonight. Winds will shift to the south tomorrow, initiating the conveyor belt of warmer air. Overall, tomorrow is nice for a winter’s day with lots of sunshine!
Keep in mind, a few light rain showers may speckle the radar overnight Saturday into the day on Sunday, but any appreciable rain is going to hold off until Monday-Tuesday.
A big warm up is in store for Monday when afternoon highs will reach the 60s! Be ready to break out the shorts again.
However. the warm up will be associated with showers Monday as a front lifts north through the area. This initial wave of energy precludes a strong cold front sweeping through Tuesday night.
NWS Nashville commenting on Tuesday’s rain/storm chances:
At this time, strong storms (at least) appear likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. The GFS forecast soundings do show come CAPE associated with this environment, and both the extended models show a 45-50 kt 850 mb jet setting up in the pre-front environment.
Expect highs in the 40s as the weekend approaches with increased sunshine Friday and Saturday. You’ll still want the long sleeves and long pants, though.
A very slight chance for showers exists late Saturday and into Sunday AM. I have my doubts about this, and so do models like the GFS, which don’t show any rain during this period.
