Last night’s forecast was “no rain until Thursday!”
Uhhhh. Then this morning happened.
Light rain this morning surprised me. Rain was supposed to pass completely south of us. Most of it did. But we still got some this morning. At 5:56 AM NWS-Nashville noted approaching rain in West Tennessee was not reaching the ground thanks to a low level Dry Air Monster.
Dry days ahead!
Pretty warm, too.
Rain and storms may start late Wednesday night/wee hours Thursday morning.
South winds will be strong. The Euro model thinks winds will gust over 40 MPH. Storm strength will depend on instability and dewpoint levels. No two storm events are the same, but this looks pretty similar to what we saw yesterday/Saturday — plenty of wind energy, questionable instability. As usual, considerable uncertainty, especially this far away.
Last night’s storm reports weren’t from storms but from the Wind Advisory. “Non thunderstorm-winds,” they call it.
Rain reached 2″+ in spots yesterday. Creeks and streams rose quickly and fell not as quickly. A few rivers reached pre-flood “action stage.” For more on that, this.
The rain is over. Storms have moved on to our east, allowing for our the tornado watch including Davidson and Williamson counties to be cancelled. We remain under a wind advisory until 9PM.
Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, are expected for another hour or so, becoming calm by midnight.
Severe weather requires the right ingredients coming together at the right time. Severe weather ingredients may come together this afternoon and/or early tonight.
Two waves of storms, both with severe potential.
Severe weather requires the right ingredients coming together at the right time. Severe weather ingredients may come together this afternoon and/or early tonight.
Two waves of storms, both with severe potential.
The Storm Prediction Center has assigned a “2 out of 5” risk category for most of us on Saturday. Areas W of 65 has been in an Enhanced or “3 out of 5” risk category.
Today we’ll be mostly cloudy, cool, and dry through the early evening hours. Afternoon high will be around 50° here in Nashville.
Rain chances will increase after sunset as our next big rainmaker arrives. Scattered drizzles could begin around 9PM tonight, becoming rain by midnight.
We are going to be sitting 18º below our average high of 58º today.
Expect an afternoon high of around 40º with a west wind, 5-10 mph. Clear skies will give way to a partly cloudy night across WIlliamson and Davidson Counties. An overnight low of 24º is expected. At least it’s not in the teens!
Cold continues. Wind chills in the low 20°s around sundown then upper teens tonight.
Even colder tomorrow morning. Wake up low 19°, wind chill 13°.
I mean, yeah, technically it’s still winter.
Wednesday’s high is 39° – a meaningful improvement – then Thursday morning another ice boxer 24° (wind chill 21°), but 52° Thursday afternoon.
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