Rain Begins Late Tonight; Soggy Friday Morning Commute; Freeze Warning Friday Night/Saturday Morning

Freeze Warning in effect from 11 PM Friday Night to 11 AM Saturday Morning

Friday’s overnight temps could fall into the mid/upper 20s, bringing a hard freeze to Nashville.

Rain Chances Increase this Evening

Afternoon rain chances are low ahead of another cold front slated to push through the midstate this evening. read more

Rain Today and Friday, Cooler Temperatures Ahead

Today

A wet and cool afternoon is the story of the day here in Nashville. We are still watching the light rain traverse the area from west to east. High temperatures will struggle to reach 60º this afternoon with cloudy skies overhead. The rain will be exiting by midnight. Keep an umbrella handy through the day. read more

Clearing Today; Possible Sprinkles Tomorrow; Cold Temps Thursday into the Weekend

Clouds Have Cleared

The clouds and storms are gone.  As details about the tornado outbreak last night arrive, we’ll post them to Twitter.

Weak surface ridging will build in this afternoon and tonight – therefore, no rain, high temps this afternoon in the upper 60°s. Temps will fall into the upper 40s by sunset. read more

Tornado Threat Over for Nashville & Williamson Co.

The tornado threat for Nashville and Williamson Co is over.

We’re pretty tired.

Nice weather for Election Day.

A new forecast will be written here sometime tomorrow morning.

Rest of the Week

Rain is likely late Thursday.

Freezing temps likely early Saturday and Sunday mornings. read more

Tornado Watch Until 3 AM

This Tornado Watch is in effect until 3 AM, although we think the storms will be long gone by 3 AM.

The tornado and damaging wind concern will exist in a long, main line of storms. That storm line will be to Nashville and Will Co as early as 9:30 PM, perhaps as late as midnight. read more

ETAs Looking Iffier / Damaging Wind, Tornado Probabilities / Uncertainties - It’s Still All About That CAPE (no treble)

–Updates in blue, below.–Note this likely will be our last long-form blog update for today–Additional information will be posted to Twitter which can be found here and/or here even if you don’t have a Twitter account. read more

Line of Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Expected Late Tonight: ETAs/Probabilities/Uncertainties - It’s All About That CAPE

This morning my friend Melissa asked “when do I need to pay attention to this?”

Tonight, Melissa. Tonight.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will form and move from northwest to southeast across Middle Tennessee tonight. All models show this. Below is one, the HRRR, one of my favorite weather models: read more

Damaging Wind/Tornado Threat Monday Night. ETAs & Probabilities. And Why “this is not a slam dunk event.”

(If you read our forecast this morning, the new information on tomorrow night’s severe storm threat is in blue).

Cold Rain

Official NashSevereWx Correspondents dispatched to Memphis this morning confirm the rain falling now is cold. read more

Monday Night Damaging Winds/Tornado Risk: Avocado Probabilities, ETA, Caveats, My Four Things Theory

Today

It’s going to get breezy this afternoon, even windy, with gusts up to 25 MPH.

High today 64°.

Afternoon rain is expected. It should cross the Tennessee River around lunchtime and arrive here around late afternoon, aka, around the time it’s getting dark. The HRRR model illustrates: read more

Risk of Damaging Winds, Tornadoes, Maybe Hail Monday Night. ETAs & Probability Details Here.

(If you read this morning’s blog, the text in blue is new)

Saturday was our last day of regular daylight because:

Your 25 Hour Sunday Looks Shabby

Sunup at 6:12 AM. Temp 48°. Afternoon high 65°.

Sundown at 4:48 PM. Four forty eight. read more